December Discussion with WeatherTrends360

December Discussion with WeatherTrends360

Jonathan Carr 🕔13:23, 30.Nov 2018

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how December 2018 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into climatologically-similar regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain and Newark Basin (SWNJ through CNJ and

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Mild Wet Conditions Expected (Nov 30-Dec 2)

Mild Wet Conditions Expected (Nov 30-Dec 2)

Jonathan Carr 🕔20:35, 29.Nov 2018

Discussion: A very weak disturbance could produce light precipitation Friday PM. Some of NNJ, lets say ~I-80 and N, could see frozen precipitation. Not much total moisture is involved with this so little-to-no accumulation is expected. Let’s still use some

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Wet Start. Cold Dry Finish (Nov 26-30)

Wet Start. Cold Dry Finish (Nov 26-30)

Jonathan Carr 🕔19:47, 25.Nov 2018

Discussion: The +PNA/-NAO/-AO pattern is in-place but a Mid-Atlantic winter storm will likely not happen this week. Instead a series of low transfers (Great Lakes->Gulf of Maine->Nova Scotia) should occur and eventually produce a very strong storm well to our

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Mild Wet Conditions (Nov 24-25)

Mild Wet Conditions (Nov 24-25)

Jonathan Carr 🕔09:42, 24.Nov 2018

Discussion: 500mb heights should remain below-average through the weekend and especially next week. As high pressure departs further into the Atlantic Ocean this weekend, low pressure cutting to our NW into Canada will assist with the southerly flow. Tonight low

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Frigid Conditions Expected (Nov 19-23)

Frigid Conditions Expected (Nov 19-23)

Jonathan Carr 🕔12:01, 19.Nov 2018

Discussion: A strong upper-level NW jet will set up on the backside of a trough this week. This should deliver a blast of very cold air to NJ between Wednesday evening and Friday morning making Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) the bottom-out

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Cold Uneventful Conditions Expected (Nov 16-18)

Cold Uneventful Conditions Expected (Nov 16-18)

Jonathan Carr 🕔13:56, 16.Nov 2018

Discussion: The upper levels look very zonal through this weekend and into next week until a trough tries to slide in midweek. Zonal means calm and uneventful so that should be some good news for Thanksgiving travel. With the trough

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Nov 15: Winter Storm Surprises

Nov 15: Winter Storm Surprises

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:46, 15.Nov 2018

Discussion: Well, we knew there was a winter storm coming but sometimes mother nature throws a curve-ball. My expectations heading into this system included snow for NWNJ and snow-to-ice-to-rain for mostly everyone else in NJ. Today’s precipitation arrived early and

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Nov 14: Winter Storm Approaching

Nov 14: Winter Storm Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔17:04, 14.Nov 2018

Please click here for full-resolution snow map! Please click here for full-resolution ice map! Discussion: The general dynamics of this system have not changed. We still have an upper-level low breaking off from a C US trough and enhancing a surface

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Nov 13: Winter Storm Detected

Nov 13: Winter Storm Detected

Jonathan Carr 🕔17:01, 13.Nov 2018

Please click here for full-resolution snow map! Please click here for full-resolution ice map! Discussion: A piece of upper-level energy will break off from a C US trough and form a cut-off 500mb low. This low should crawl through the TN/KY

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Mixed Conditions Continue (Nov 12-16)

Mixed Conditions Continue (Nov 12-16)

Jonathan Carr 🕔17:28, 11.Nov 2018

Discussion: High pressure has control for tonight and will allow temperatures to bottom out low again. It should have control through most daylight hours tomorrow as well. By late Monday evening that high pressure should move away with a weak

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