A look through November with WT360

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 2, 2017 13:36

A look through November with WT360

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how November 2017 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ – Newark Basin), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 4-7 day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends is what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

nnj11-2017

Higher Elevation Discussion: This region has already seen a few frosts through October however looks to start on the warmer side for the first week of November. It looks like ~Nov 6 will be the last high temperatures in the 60s. For the last 3/4 of November we look to reach the 40s and 50s for highs with temperatures well into the 30s overnight with even some 20s. Precipitation signals indicate average amounts. All in all, an uneventful month with average conditions once beyond the warmer first week…possibly below average. The nor’easter is our only wildcard. None are currently predicted but they can always pop up in the 4-7 day forecasting period.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

cnj11-2017

Interior Coastal Plain Discussion: This region looks to start on the warmer side for the first week of November. It looks like ~Nov 6 will be the last high temperatures in the 70s. For the last 3/4 of November we should reach the 50s for most with a few lower-60s and upper-40s possible (for highs) with overnight temperatures well into the 30s. Precipitation signals indicate average amounts. All in all, an uneventful month with average conditions once beyond the warmer first week…possibly below average. The nor’easter is our only wildcard. None are currently predicted but they can always pop up in the 4-7 day forecasting period.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

snj11-2017

Coastal Region Discussion: This region looks to start on the warmer side for the first week of November. It looks like ~Nov 6 will be the last high temperatures in the 70s. For the last 3/4 of November we should reach the 50s for most with a few lower-60s and upper-40s possible (for highs) with overnight temperatures down to the upper-30s/lower-40s. Precipitation signals indicate average amounts. All in all, an uneventful month with average conditions once beyond the warmer first week…possibly below average. The nor’easter is our only wildcard. None are currently predicted but they can always pop up in the 4-7 day forecasting period.

Tropical Discussion: We’re pretty much finished with tropical activity until the 2018 year. Coastal ocean temperatures have fallen into the lower-60s and can really only support extra-tropical storm development. It’s nor’easter season now and as mentioned above, I’ll be on any nor-nor that tries to form in the mid-to-long range forecasting period.

Everyone have a great November and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 2, 2017 13:36

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