April 19: Rain and Storms Approaching!

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 19, 2015 16:09

April 19: Rain and Storms Approaching!

A strong low pressure system will spin up into the Great Lakes between now and Tuesday. This should bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and possibly thunderstorms to the region Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Let’s break it down…

This should be one of the rainiest systems we’ve seen so far this year. As you can see here on the GFS total expected precipitation model image, between 1″ and 3″ of rainfall is possible depending on where the heaviest downpours set up:

expected rainfall

As far as thunderstorms go, the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (NWS SPC) has almost all of SNJ in the SLGT (slight) risk zone for severe weather. NNJ is mostly in the marginal threat zone which simply means a lesser risk. With that said, the I-95 corridor through DC, Baltimore, and Philly have a decent chance for thunderstorms. As usual (9 times out of 10) these storms fizzle before reaching the coast but that’s what now-casting is for. Whenever widespread rainfall is expected, thunderstorms are often of an embedded nature instead of towering cumulonimbus cells. We’ll have to keep an eye on any diurnal surface heating that occurs ahead of the rain. This should be minimal given cloud coverage. Wind shear is likely the biggest culprit of severe weather tomorrow.

nws spc

For severe thunderstorms to be triggered, they must meet specific criteria: wind gusts in excess of 58mph and/or hail 1″ or larger in diameter. I’ll be watching for either-or tomorrow and the NWS will sound severe thunderstorm warnings as soon as such criteria is met. For the most part though, tomorrow’s headline should be heavy widespread rain.

In English: Expect cloud coverage to increase heading into this evening and overnight hours. Expect 1-3″ of rain between tomorrow morning and Tuesday morning with gusty winds and possibly embedded thunderstorms. Flash flooding is possible under heavy downpours, especially in areas of poor drainage. I’ll have the fully detailed Monday-Friday Outlook posted tomorrow morning but will also be now-casting via radar observations.

Check out our friends at Mid-Atlantic Waterproofing—serving all of New Jersey and the general Mid-Atlantic US with waterproofing, foundation repair and basement dry-out services. With a rainy spring anticipated, it’s probably not a bad idea to schedule a FREE foundation inspection. Be safe! JC

Comments

comments

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 19, 2015 16:09

Current Weather in NJ

giweather wordpress widget