April Discussion with WeatherTrends360

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 3, 2018 14:02

April Discussion with WeatherTrends360

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how the rest of April 2018 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into climatological regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ – Newark Basin), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends is what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

nnj4-2018

Higher Elevation Discussion: As indicated in the above diagram, a roller coaster of conditions are expected between now and about April 11. These conditions can range from a mild-feeling early-spring day to snowfall. Stay tuned to my articles this week discussing specific snowfall potential. Otherwise, April 11/12 looks like the magic spring flip. This regions should then see highs regularly reaching the lower-60s with overnight lows keeping above freezing and even hovering near 40F. Average precipitation is expected for the second 2/3 of the month. I could see a few days here and there breaking 70 towards the end of April. April snowfall is not unprecedented for this region but typically arrives in the form of lake-effect snow showers and squalls. There should be no more synoptic snow storms after whatever happens in the first 10 days of April. Again, stay tuned this week.

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

cnj4-2018

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin Discussion: As indicated in the above diagram, a roller coaster of conditions are expected between now and about April 11. These conditions can range from a mild-feeling early-spring day to snowfall. Stay tuned to my articles this week discussing specific snowfall potential. Otherwise, April 11/12 looks like the magic spring flip. This regions should then see highs regularly reaching the mid-60s with overnight lows keeping above 40F. I imagine a few frosts are likely. Average precipitation is expected for the second 2/3 of the month. This region has the best chance to break 70 during the second half of the month. April snowfall is not unprecedented for this region but typically arrives in the form of lake-effect snow showers and squalls. This is a little less likely than the elevations of NWNJ but I’ve seen stranger. There should be no more synoptic snow storms after whatever happens in the first 10 days of April. Again, stay tuned this week.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

snj4-2018

Coastal Region Discussion: As indicated in the above diagram, a roller coaster of conditions are expected between now and about April 11. These conditions can range from a mild-feeling early-spring day to snowfall. Stay tuned to my articles this week discussing specific snowfall potential. Otherwise, April 11/12 looks like the magic spring flip. This regions should then see highs regularly reaching the mid-to-upper 60s with overnight lows generally staying above 40F. There should be more than a few days that break 70F as a high during the second half of April. This region can dip colder than interior/CNJ, especially in the Pine Barrens. Therefore more frost potential exists here overnight. Average precipitation is expected for the second 2/3 of the month. April snowfall is not unprecedented for this region but typically arrives in the form of lake-effect snow showers and squalls. This region has the least chance to see such. There should be no more synoptic snow storms after whatever happens in the first 10 days of April. Again, stay tuned this week.

In English: Hang in there Jersey! Sustainable warmer spring weather should set in from ~April 11-12 and forward. We just need to get by these next 8 days or so where snowfall is still possible. I will be speaking to this snowfall potential throughout various articles this week…leading into the weekend. ~April 8 is still the snow storm signal and likely the last until next winter gets underway. About the only surprise that can happen is severe weather (thunderstorms and wind potential). Such occurrences will have to be addressed in the short-range forecasting period when they arise (3-4 days out). Otherwise, everyone have a great April and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 3, 2018 14:02

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