Aug 11: Rain Already Approaching

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 11, 2014 18:56

Aug 11: Rain Already Approaching

Rain is already approaching the Washington D.C./Baltimore area from the W/SW. At it’s current pace it should arrive in New Jersey by sunrise if not earlier. I’m starting to get a better idea of how this system is going to play out.  It should pretty much wash out tomorrow but clear by noon on Wednesday, if not earlier. I’m thinking inches of rainfall will be the main headline here, not thunderstorms. Although embedded thunderstorms are possible within the widespread rainfall, higher winds should be kept in check by lack of instability and marginal wind shear values…it could still get gusty but there’s a less chance of severe criteria being met. There are better wind parameters to our north (NY/New England). Let’s look at some current obs and short-range model guidance.

As you can see precipitation is approaching the region. A low pressure disturbance will be passing through, from west to east, just to our north. This will create multiple frontal passages that moisture will basically surf to the coast. Here’s the current front end of precipitation on radar:

Weather NJ radar

The high-res short-range NAM is indicating the heaviest concentration of rainfall between 8pm and midnight tomorrow night (8PM shown below). Multiple inches of much-needed rain are expected to fall:

Weather NJ NAM

In English: Expect scattered showers to form overnight tonight and slowly pick up in intensity towards tomorrow evening. Widespread heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms are then expected into the early AM hours of Wednesday with a target clearing time of noon. Again, rainfall will be the headline not the embedded isolated-scattered storms. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 11, 2014 18:56

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