Aug 31: Heavy Rain Expected Overnight!

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 31, 2014 19:00

Aug 31: Heavy Rain Expected Overnight!

Ultra short-range model guidance is picking up heavy rainfall for CNJ and SNJ later tonight. There’s a lot of moisture in the atmosphere which I’m sure you felt today. Basically this moisture will continue to be squeezed out of the atmosphere from a series of frontal passages between now and the end of the weekend. First let’s look at the HRRR model which is experimental but normally accurate in the mesoscale range. The 21Z HRRR favors heavier rainfall for all of SNJ (south of I-195). This map shows expected precipitation intensity at midnight tonight. Basically red = heavy rainfall:

HRRR model shows heavy rain expected overnight in new jersey
The 18Z NAM however, keeps the heavy stuff along the I-95 corridor (well into NENJ and possibly robbing SENJ). This map shows expected precipitation intensity around 11PM. Again, red = heavy rainfall:

18Z NAM shows heavy rain along the I-95 corridor

In English: I don’t think the heavy stuff’s gonna come down for quite awhile (Caddyshack 1980). Expect heavy rain to set up somewhere over CNJ/SNJ overnight. Tomorrow still looks very unsettled. I will update about that tomorrow morning after fresh AM guidance. In the meantime be safe and stay dry! JC

Model images reproduced with permission from WeatherBell Analytics.

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 31, 2014 19:00

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