August 2017 Discussion

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 1, 2017 12:18

August 2017 Discussion

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how August of 2017 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ – Newark Basin), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 4-7 day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends is what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

nnj8-2017

Higher Elevation Discussion: This region will soon step away from upper-80s/lower-90s for high temperatures and gradually decrease to upper-70s/lower-80s. The upper elevations of NNJ are always the first to experience the first few tastes of fall, especially after departing cold fronts. Low temperatures will soon commonly drop well into the 50s instead of low-to-mid 60s overnight. The August 7-11 period seems rainy with a few other wet periods later in the month (please see above graph). Otherwise, pretty run of mill August weather is expected, tropical activity not considered.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

cnj8-2017

Interior Coastal Plain Discussion: This region will soon step away from the low-to-mid 90s for high temperatures and gradually decrease to lower-80s. The interior coastal plain and Newark Basin are the warmest areas of New Jersey and should therefore hold onto warmer temperatures through August. Low temperatures will soon commonly drop well into the 60s instead of low-to-mid 70s overnight. There are a few anomaly areas, such as the pigmy pine forest, that like to drop as low as NNJ elevations overnight but these areas are less-populated. The August 7-11 period seems rainy with a few other wet periods later in the month (please see above graph). Otherwise, pretty run of mill August weather is expected, tropical activity not considered.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

snj8-2017

Coastal Region Discussion: This region will soon step away from upper-80s for high temperatures and gradually decrease to lower-80s. The immediate coast is the most buffered climate in New Jersey due to warmer ocean temperatures so this region should hold onto warmer temperatures much like the interior coastal plain. It’s fog season however so please be careful, especially overnight. Low temperatures will soon commonly drop well into the 60s instead of low-to-mid 70s overnight as long as there is not a sea breeze keeping land temps in the 70s. The August 7-11 period seems rainy with a few other wet periods later in the month (please see above graph). Otherwise, pretty run of mill August weather is expected, tropical activity not considered.

Tropical Discussion: Some larger scale global weather patterns and anomalies, such as the MJO, are suggesting that the best tropical forcing will shift from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean over the next few weeks. This, combined with the time of year, should produce an up-tick in tropical activity for the Carribean, S Atlantic and Cape Verde areas of the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. While no threats currently exist to the New Jersey coast, it’s time to keep an eye on anything that does in-fact develop. You all know where to find me if this begins to happen 8)

Everyone have a great month of August and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 1, 2017 12:18

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