August Discussion with WeatherTrends360

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 2, 2018 12:24

August Discussion with WeatherTrends360

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how the rest of August 2018 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into climatologically-similar regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain and Newark Basin (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

nnj8-2018

Higher Elevation Discussion: As you can see, we’re over the hump of the annual hottest weather. We will now descent in average daily temperatures slowly into the fall. This does not mean that a transient heat wave or two can’t produce July temperatures in August or even September. The stubborn Bermuda high-driven pattern is expected to break down some around Aug 8. However I’m still seeing warmer flow ahead of several frontal boundaries. So we should lose the unsettled pattern after Aug 8 however warmer temperatures might persist through about Aug 15 (highs in the upper-80s/near-90 for this region). After that the second half of the month should spell relief from the higher temps and unbearable humidity. We might see another unsettled and/or wet period between ~Aug 22-26 but according to the algorithms it doesn’t seem anywhere as bad as the last few weeks. The best weather for this region is currently anticipated for ~Aug 11-21.

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

cnj8-2018

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin Discussion: As you can see, we’re over the hump of the annual hottest weather. We will now descent in average daily temperatures slowly into the fall. This does not mean that a transient heat wave or two can’t produce July temperatures in August or even September. The stubborn Bermuda high-driven pattern is expected to break down some around Aug 8. However I’m still seeing warmer flow ahead of several frontal boundaries. So we should lose the unsettled pattern after Aug 8 however warmer temperatures might persist through about Aug 15 (highs exceeding 90 – in some cases well into the 90s – for this region). After that the second half of the month should spell relief from the higher temps and unbearable humidity. We might see another unsettled and/or wet period between ~Aug 22-26 but according to the algorithms it doesn’t seem anywhere as bad as the last few weeks. The best weather for this region is currently anticipated for ~Aug 11-21.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

snj8-2018

Coastal Region Discussion: As you can see, we’re over the hump of the annual hottest weather. We will now descent in average daily temperatures slowly into the fall. This does not mean that a transient heat wave or two can’t produce July temperatures in August or even September. The stubborn Bermuda high-driven pattern is expected to break down some around Aug 8. However I’m still seeing warmer flow ahead of several frontal boundaries. So we should lose the unsettled pattern after Aug 8 however warmer temperatures might persist through about Aug 15 (highs in the upper-80s/lower-90s for this region). Obviously a sea breeze front could take temperatures down into the upper-70s/lower-80s for the immediate coast on any given afternoon. After that the second half of the month should spell relief from the higher temps and unbearable humidity. We might see another unsettled and/or wet period between ~Aug 22-26 but according to the algorithms it doesn’t seem anywhere as bad as the last few weeks. The best weather for this region is currently anticipated for ~Aug 11-21. We’re approaching the point where coastal regions can stay warmer than inland regions overnight due to marine influence. Therefore overnight onshore flow could push warmer humid air into a drier cool air mass and produce fog.  This is common for this time of year where the ocean/bay meets the pines.

In English: So basically the unsettled pattern breaks down ~Aug 8 but the hotter conditions stick around through mid-August. The second half of August looks cooler and drier but still summery. Best chances of rain are today through Aug 10 and Aug 22-26. Best chance of sunny weather is between ~Aug 11 and 21. While no tropical disturbances currently present a threat to New Jersey, it’s just about time for things to start heating up, especially as we head into September. I’ll be on it if anything pops up. Otherwise please enjoy August and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 2, 2018 12:24

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