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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Unsettled Conditions Expected (Dec 22-24)

Unsettled Conditions Expected (Dec 22-24)

🕔19:01, 21.Dec 2017

Discussion: An area of ridging should dominate the weather pattern through Sunday. This means milder temperatures overall with an especially gloomy Saturday. While Saturday does not look like an all-day washout, it should feature periods of fog, drizzle and on/off

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Milder Conditions Expected (Dec 18-22)

Milder Conditions Expected (Dec 18-22)

🕔20:48, 17.Dec 2017

Discussion: Real quick, scattered light precipitation could fall overnight tonight. Only NJ areas N of  I-78 would be cold enough for wintry precipitation. Very light amounts are expected but could still slick-up the early AM rush hour commute tomorrow. Moving

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Dec 15: Snow Map for Today

Dec 15: Snow Map for Today

🕔09:56, 15.Dec 2017

Click here to see full resolution snow map! Discussion: A strong 250mb jet streak is howling from W to E over the OBX area. 500mb height anomalies are below average over the E US as several weak shortwaves couple up

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Cold Possibly Snowy Start. Milder Finish (Dec 15-17)

Cold Possibly Snowy Start. Milder Finish (Dec 15-17)

🕔16:36, 14.Dec 2017

Discussion: About the only thing worth discussing this weekend is a coastal disturbance. The low should form off OBX Friday AM and track SE of the 40N/70W benchmark out-to-sea through Friday night/early Saturday AM. The flow is progressive (a quick

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Dec 13: More Snow Expected Overnight

Dec 13: More Snow Expected Overnight

🕔14:02, 13.Dec 2017

Click here to see full resolution snow map! Map Notes: Please see below. Area A could still see some coatings in that area, especially for the southern PA and northern DE counties. Some model disagreement for those areas, but most

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Cold Pattern Reloads (Dec 11-15)

Cold Pattern Reloads (Dec 11-15)

🕔12:51, 11.Dec 2017

Discussion: A few upper-level shortwaves will be syncing up within a broader longwave trough. This trough is expected to swing through our area this week. The upper level dynamics will no doubt produce a surface disturbance but such should stay

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Dec 8: Final Call Snow Map for Saturday

Dec 8: Final Call Snow Map for Saturday

🕔19:00, 8.Dec 2017

Click here to see full resolution snow map! Discussion: The 250mb jet streak over our region continues to impress for this event. This should help enhance frontogenic forcing/lifting below at the 700mb level which translates to heavier snow rates at

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Wintry Conditions Expected (Dec 8-10)

Wintry Conditions Expected (Dec 8-10)

🕔10:05, 8.Dec 2017

Discussion: A low pressure system will track just offshore near the benchmark with about a 990-995mb intensity. This should be enough to throw wintry precipitation off the ocean all the way into PA with NJ seeing the jackpot of accumulations.

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Dec 7: First Call Snow Map for Saturday

Dec 7: First Call Snow Map for Saturday

🕔19:05, 7.Dec 2017

Click here to view full resolution snow map! Discussion: The biggest trends I’ve seen over the last few days are timing, strength and NW-precipitation extent. This is now a Saturday event. Flurries could possibly begin late Friday night but the

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Dec 5: Talking Snow

Dec 5: Talking Snow

🕔14:09, 5.Dec 2017

Discussion: Let’s talk about the first frontal passage real quick. Precipitation is likely just ahead and along the cold front this evening into tomorrow morning. I’m expecting most of this precipitation to fall as rain overnight however the last part

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