Beautiful Fall Weekend Expected (Sept 23-25)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 23, 2016 11:49

Beautiful Fall Weekend Expected (Sept 23-25)

Other than a small chance of a passing shower along a mostly dry cold front, the first weekend of fall looks pretty good. Let’s break it down…

Nerdy Disco: Perhaps some upstream physics were slightly disrupted by the typhoon activity in the W and N Pacific Ocean. Regardless, we’re looking at a meridional jet stream pattern setting up over N America starting this weekend. A strong ridge will build to our W over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. This will help contribute to the edge of an upper-level trough swinging through the Northeast US and parts of the Mid-Atlantic US. This setup will produce a decent upper level jet out of the NW and a strong flow out of the N/NW at the surface given high pressure placement and slope of descent out of Canada. That’s enough to noticeably chill down the area, especially overnight. Friday looks like the last warmer day heading into this setup. Saturday should be a day of transition as the cold front pushes through from N to S. Sunday morning should feel like a different planet waking up as some areas of NJ (elevations and inland) flirt with a frost. This cooler period looks to last through at least Tuesday morning. We could then be warm-sectored on Tuesday with rain and thunderstorms before another cold front pushes through for Wednesday-forward. I’m watching the system crossing the Atlantic Ocean from W Africa towards the Caribbean. It’s too early to speculate so best to just keep watching for now.

Friday (Sept 23) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ could flirt with 90 but should at least reach 85. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds that improve throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations and interior SNJ pine barrens possibly dipping into the 50s.

Saturday (Sept 24) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should eventually become mostly sunny but could start out cloudy and possibly wet. There’s a small chance of an isolated shower along the passing cold front. With any luck…just a few friendly fall-looking clouds with the mention of it a waste. Because the cold front will be passing over us during peak sun angle hours, it should still feel pleasant and somewhat warm while the sun is out. Once the sun sets however, temperatures should take a noticeable dive. Winds should be light out of the N/NE, perhaps a little breezier along the coast. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most. NNJ elevations could dip into the 30s while the immediate coast could hang onto 50s (marine temperature influence).

Sunday (Sept 25) high temperatures should struggle to break 70 statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for NNJ elevations and 40s for mostly everyone else. Again, the warmer ocean could keep the immediate coast in the lower-50s. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised to see fog along the coast during early AM hours of Sunday and Monday. We’ll have to see how close the temperature and dew point gets at the surface.

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An early look at next week indicates cooler temperatures to start with rain and possibly thunderstorms possible on a warmer Tuesday. After that more cooler weather should swing through on the heals of another frontal passage for Wednesday-forward. Not seeing anything too above or below average temperature-wise. Hopefully Tuesday provides some much needed rainfall.

I took the above image at Batsto Village in 2014. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 23, 2016 11:49

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