Discussion: Remnants of Nestor are approaching in the form of an extra-tropical cyclone. Not a nor’easter by my criteria but certainly a coastal storm. There are no tricks in the upper-levels. This system is heading into an establishing ridge and
Discussion: The data has trended wetter and windier for Sunday’s coastal system brush. I’ll say right off the bat that areas along and NW of the Turnpike will likely see minimal impacts if any. Areas along the SENJ/ECNJ coast however
Discussion: A trough will move out with the departing nor’easter. But not before keeping the region colder and still-breezy tonight (Thursday) through part of Friday. Upper-level heights should then build from Saturday through Tuesday. This should keep it dry with
Discussion: Our coastal storm is just getting started. The upper-level low is intensifying over the Great Lakes with an initial surface low directly underneath. This Great Lakes surface low will transfer to the surface energy currently moving up the coast
Discussion: Our coastal storm players are on the field. You can see the energy across the SE US (just N of the Gulf Coast) which will turn and track up the coast and interact with the strong Upper-Level Low (ULL).
Discussion: Another October coastal storm is about to develop and hit coastal New England. This is the long-range storm signal that showed up a little over a week ago and with good reason. The upper-levels have remained impressively modeled well
Discussion: The original October 18-22 storm signal will actually come into fruition but not for the Mid-Atlantic US…rather for the NorthEast US for Oct 17-18. It was a solid signal which is comforting to see re: long-range ensemble performance. First
Discussion: Our offshore storm system has been named Subtropical Storm Melissa. Quite honestly she has worn out her welcome especially for coastal residents. She is still providing elevated tides and even a few fringe showers to extreme ECNJ/SENJ today. Melissa
Discussion: After reviewing 24 more hours of model guidance and live observations I think we’re locking onto a more defined solution for the coastal storm. The offshore storm system is approaching now and I’d like to break the impacts down
Discussion: October is traditionally known for coastal storms and nor’easters. The NJ-latitude Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are about 10 degrees cooler than they were just 4-6 weeks ago and therefore are harder to sustain warmer tropical cores. It’s not impossible
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