Cold and Dry (Jan 25-27)

Discussion: Winds should remain breezy overnight but subside by morning. 500mb height anomalies look cold and troughy for the E US from tomorrow into at least the first week of February. If you look at the 250mb jet it’s raging across the W Pacific and splitting in the E Pacific upon hitting the Rex Block pattern. This is producing ridging over the W US (+PNA) and allowing the –AO Tropospheric Polar Vortex lobe to spill down into the E US—holding the trough in place for the foreseeable future. The only remaining upper-level jet component, for a favorable winter storm pattern, is the Greenland blocking signal (NAO). We really don’t see any significant blocking until the Jan 30-Feb 2 period. This would then force another re-loading trough into the E US for the week to follow and further reinforce the blocking downstream. With that said Jan 30-Feb 2 looks interesting for our next potential snow to track. But for this weekend we’re looking cold and dry through Sunday morning as the front-side of a strong surface high approaches. This will correlate with the arrival of the E US trough. We’ll likely see a milder Sunday-Tuesday as the jet/trough reloads for the brutal cold Wednesday-forward.

Friday (Jan 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 30s for most. Skies should feature mixed sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the teens for most possibly single-digits for NNJ elevations and interior Pine Barrens.

Saturday (Jan 26) high temperatures should range from upper-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should feature mixed sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the teens and 20s for most. Coastal areas could hang in the 30s due to marine influence.

Sunday (Jan 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most. NNJ elevations could hang in the mid-to-upper 30s. Skies should feature mixed sun and clouds. Winds should remain light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from 20 to 30 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates a relatively mild Monday-Tuesday followed by Arctic cold (like this past Sunday night-Tuesday morning) returning for Wednesday-forward. Some data suggests a mid-week disturbance ushering in the brutal cold. It’s a little too soon to determine precipitation type or amounts. Let’s see how that signal evolves through this weekend. Download the new free Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and/or Android. It’s the easiest way to never miss Weather NJ content. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™