Cold Breezy Conditions Expected (March 9-11)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 8, 2018 20:31

Cold Breezy Conditions Expected (March 9-11)

Discussion: On Friday we could see passing snow showers associated with an upper-level low. Believe it or not this is still upper-level energy related to the recent Wednesday nor’easter. Friday should be very cold aloft yet warmer at the surface so instability could enhance these snow showers into quick-passing but more impactful squalls. I doubt any of these snow showers or squalls would produce more than trace-to-light accumulations given their short duration and warmer surface but they could temporarily reduce visibility as flizzards. Saturday and most of Sunday look fairly straightforward to forecast. Low pressure will be near Maine and high pressure will be near the Gulf of Mexico. That means colder W/NW winds for New Jersey sandwiched between cyclonic and anti-cyclonic flow. On Sunday night things could get interesting. Another low will track across the US from W to E and eject into the Atlantic Ocean somewhere between OBX and Delmarva. Depending on its track from thereon, New Jersey could be looking at another nor’easter-like/snow storm between Sunday PM and Monday PM. A Rex block would likely produce another slow moving and strong cyclone regardless. The other extreme opposite possibility is a storm that misses us to the SE. A split down the middle of extreme possibilities would be a system that hits Virginia, S Maryland, Delmarva and possibly SENJ with light-to-significant accumulations. The most recent guidance (GFS/GEFS) has firmly reminded me that this possibility cannot be taken off the table. Earlier runs today of the UKIE and Euro suggest the out to sea miss however. I’d like to monitor guidance for another day and put my first event article out tomorrow (Friday) if needed. By then all energies involved will be better sampled (especially after 12Z) and we should approach a consensus: A New Jersey hit vs a storm that sleeps with the fishes. For now, this is very possible if the vorts phase like the GFS/GEFS suggest.

Friday (Mar 9) high temperatures should range from low-to-mid 40s from NNJ to SNJ. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds with passing isolated snow showers possible. Little-to-no accumulation is expected. Winds should be breezy and even gusty at times out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most with coastal areas hanging near-freezing.

Saturday (Mar 10) high temperatures should range from low-to-mid 40s from NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most with coastal areas again hanging near-freezing.

Sunday (Mar 11) high temperatures should range from low-to-mid 40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny at least during the day. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ. I’m monitoring another possible coastal snow storm for the Sunday night to Monday night window of time. Right now I’m 60/40 on a NJ miss/NJ hit. It’s wise not to rule anything out at this time.

An early look at next week indicates more of the same, after whatever happens Sunday PM-Monday PM. More highs in the 40s and lows ranging from 20s to 30s NNJ to SNJ. Right now it looks like we could warm up a bit heading into next weekend. Nothing too crazy but maybe highs in the 50s instead of 40s. Let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 8, 2018 20:31

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