Cold Dry Week Ends Mild Wet (Dec 10-14)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 10, 2018 10:59

Cold Dry Week Ends Mild Wet (Dec 10-14)

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Discussion: 500mb heights should remain below-average for much of this week. A trailing shortwave should reinforce the cold Tuesday night/Wednesday morning at the surface. We should then moderate for a likely-wet weekend. There’s cold air aloft and the ocean is chilling down but the lower-levels are mostly supportive for a rain-only system. We should then return to cold to start next week with a good chance of the lake-effect snow machine producing snow showers and squalls (but not a big snow storm). The next winter storm signal comes right around Christmas time as an upper-level low matures in the SW US/N Mexico area and eventually swings through the east coast. Just a signal we are monitoring. I don’t want to hear “JC says White Christmas” or else you deserve a noogie. The signals we’ve monitored for weeks in advance this year ended up producing a snow storm two weeks ago and a miss to the S yesterday. A winter storm signal means conditions are favorable in the long range. It does not mean to start inquiring about left-side vs right-side yard snow accumulations lol. I’ll discuss this in more detail as we closer approach. We also have a possible stratospheric warming event for the last third of December which could bring a very cold January to the table. For now, enjoy the current cold dry week and milder wet weekend.

Monday (Dec 10) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most. Skies should be partly sunny as clouds clear away with yesterday’s departing snow storm that missed us to the S. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Dec 11) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most again, maybe 1-2 degrees warmer than Monday. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to lower-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Dec 12) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most again. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Dec 13) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most. NNJ elevations might hang in the upper-30s. Skies should start mostly sunny but increase in cloud coverage throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from 30 to 40 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Dec 14) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most. NNJ elevations might hang in the mid-40s. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Rain is possible especially for PM hours. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates mild and unsettled conditions. Highs near-50, lows in the 30s with periods of rainfall likely. Right now Saturday looks rainier than Sunday but we’ll revisit this more in a few days. No winter storm expectations on the near-horizon outside of the signal mentioned in the above discussion. I hope you are enjoying the new Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and Android. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 10, 2018 10:59

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