Cold Possibly Snowy Start. Milder Finish (Dec 15-17)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 14, 2017 16:36

Cold Possibly Snowy Start. Milder Finish (Dec 15-17)

Discussion: About the only thing worth discussing this weekend is a coastal disturbance. The low should form off OBX Friday AM and track SE of the 40N/70W benchmark out-to-sea through Friday night/early Saturday AM. The flow is progressive (a quick moving system) however the precipitation shield from this system could extend far enough off the ocean to bring snowfall to at least SNJ/SENJ.  The latest trends in short-range model guidance suggest possibly even further into CNJ/NENJ. At this point NWNJ would be the least favored. I will address this weekend if this system trends any further but for now, SNJ/SENJ is the most favored for this. It should move out by mid Saturday morning. Temperatures should remain colder through Saturday behind the departing low’s northerly flow but then warm up for Sunday through the start of next week. High pressure should establish near Bermuda during this period and reinforce the warmer southerly flow until the next cold front pushes through our region later next week. Models are flip-flopping on precipitation type (snow to ice to rain) but are suggesting some kind of synoptic disturbance either just before or during the Christmas period. We’re simply too far out to put any stock into this but a general storm signal is there. By Sunday I should be able to start locking into a temperature profile for that period but until then, let’s see how it evolves.

Friday (Dec 15) high temperatures should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy during most of the day. I’m watching snowfall potential for at least SNJ/SENJ possibly even CNJ/NENJ for evening into overnight hours from a passing coastal system. The system is quick-moving however and therefore accumulations should be on the lighter side like recent snowfalls. NWNJ would have the lowest chance of snowfall. Winds should be light out of the W/SW to start (ending out of N/NE) for most…a bit breezier for SNJ. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most.

Saturday (Dec 16) high temperatures should range from lower-30s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny (after any previously mentioned snowfall clears away by late-morning). Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Dec 17) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates milder conditions (highs in 40s/50s) to start the week before temperatures return to colder values by mid-week (highs back in 30s/40s). No major storm systems are showing. The Christmas Eve-Day period is just outside of my reach of confidence but a few long-range models are indicating a potential storm signal of some sort. Let’s revisit this on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 14, 2017 16:36

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