Cold Wintry Week Expected (Jan 15-19)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 15, 2018 11:45

Cold Wintry Week Expected (Jan 15-19)

Discussion: Temperatures are easy to discuss this week. We’re cold Monday-Friday and then we start to warm up this coming weekend into next week. The upper-level energy and how it translates to surface precipitation is a bit trickier. Heading into this week I’ve been tracking two periods from the same energy. First is the Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM potential which is much more confident at this range. This system favors NWNJ over SENJ for plowable accumulations. Parts of ENJ could actually see rain mix in depending on the coastal enhancement off the ocean. We issued a snow map on this yesterday and will release a final call on it later today. Then there is the additional coastal enhancement idea for SENJ between Wednesday PM into Thursday AM. This potential has flopped hard back and forth on model guidance and is completely dependent on the upper-level low closing off early like the CMC/Euro have been suggesting. If this does not happen then off it goes into the Atlantic like a fart in the wind. If it happens then plowable accumulations would be possible for SENJ. The trough is tilted positively so either way it would likely not be a major event. Right now I am 80/20 not happening/happening for SENJ between Wednesday PM and early Thursday AM. I’ll give it through the 00Z model suite tonight to finally throw the towel on it or put it in the forecast.

Monday (Jan 15) high temperatures should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should gradually increase in cloud coverage throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the NE, possibly breezier along the SENJ coast where ocean-effect flurries are possible. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Jan 16) high temperatures should range from lower-30s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with snow showers possible from afternoon into the overnight. Snowfall favors NWNJ over SENJ and our final snow map will be released at 5pm today. It’s not out of the question that ENJ might see rain mix in given the coastal enhancement aspect off the ocean. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most with more snow showers possible.

Wednesday (Jan 17) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 30s statewide. AM snow showers are likely with afternoon clearing possible. I’m still watching for possible coastal enhancement to bring additional snow to SENJ Wednesday night into Thursday AM but such is not a forecast just yet. Could go either way with a close miss possible for SENJ. Otherwise winds should be light out of the NW and overnight lows should bottom out from low-teens to low-20s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Jan 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-30s statewide. If the coastal-enhancement happens then snow could be ending during early AM hours allowing for clearing by late-morning. Otherwise the entire day looks clear with mostly sunny skies. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Jan 19) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to mid-40s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates the start of a warmup that should last into next week. I’m seeing highs in the 40s and even 50s with overnight lows staying above freezing for most except interior/NNJ. Let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 15, 2018 11:45

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