Conditions Improve (Aug 1-5)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 1, 2016 09:54

Conditions Improve (Aug 1-5)

Today could end up stormy with remnant unsettled conditions lasting through tomorrow. The rest of the week looks pretty good. Let’s break it down:

Disco: We’re still waiting for the frontal boundary, that has haunted us with humid unsettled conditions, to move away. High pressure will eventually push across the northern part of our region later this week. The front side of that approaching high will feel the best as temporary northerly flow sets in. I cannot promise a huge relief in humidity but definitely some. Once that high departs into the ocean, the back side of it will return the southerly flow. So we should expect the most pleasant conditions on Wednesday with a slow gradual build of humidity heading into Friday. Moving into the weekend, a strong Canadian low should drag a cold front through the entire region. Ahead of that cold front, the Canadian low should team up with high pressure in the Atlantic to enhance a very humid and hot SW flow. Therefore, a decent thunderstorm setup could emerge ahead of the cold front for Saturday into Sunday. Once the cold front is through, we could be looking at our first early taste of fall feel heading into next week.

Monday (Aug 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s away from the ocean. Coastal regions could be held in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are possible during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with coastal regions hanging in the lower-70s.

Tuesday (Aug 2) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s statewide. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds with isolated remnant showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE. Overnight lows could drop into the 50s for NNJ elevations. The coast could hang on to lower-70s while everyone between falls somewhere in the 60s.

Wednesday (Aug 3) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny with a drier feel. SNJ would be the suspect areas for hanging on to some of the humidity but we’ll see. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Thursday (Aug 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Friday (Aug 5) high temperatures should reach 90 away from the ocean and be held to the mid 80s along the coast. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially along a strong-enough sea breeze. Winds should be light out of the S/SW for most. A sea breeze would cause light E winds for immediate coastal areas. Overnight lows should have trouble falling below 70 statewide.

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Tropics Forecast: The tropics are coming alive with a system currently moving from E to W in the Caribbean Sea. It would be named Earl, if sustained winds reach 39mph, and ultimately threaten the southern Gulf of Mexico. There are no immediate threats to NJ or the east coast although long-range guidance is starting to signal increased tropical activity overall for the month of August.

Marine Forecast: Ocean surface temperatures are now 75+ along the entire Jersey coast from Sandy Hook to Cape May. These are slightly above-average anomalies but are likely the result of SE flow bringing the extremely above-average offshore temperatures into inshore waters. Wave heights should remain 1-3 maybe 2-4 in some spots with all the low pressure activity.

Stargazing Forecast: Tuesday and Wednesday night should be the most ideal stargazing conditions with drier skies and a new moon. Tonight and later in the week could still be okay but feature haze due to humidity.

An early look at the weekend indicates a warm and humid start, possibly stormy conditions along a cold frontal passage, followed by cooler and drier conditions heading into next week. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 1, 2016 09:54

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