Conditions Improve (May 21-25)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 21, 2018 13:35

Conditions Improve (May 21-25)

Discussion: The only disruptive weather I see this week is Tuesday during PM hours. A cold front should push some rain and possibly thunderstorms through the region. Thunderstorm intensity will be determined by diurnal heating capability during the day on Tuesday. After that high pressure should squash the possibility of rainfall from Wednesday into the weekend. The first hald of the weekend still looks warm and OK. The second half of the weekend has improved. Rainfall might be held to Sunday morning with the passage of another front. If high pressure moves in after that as modeled, then the remnants of whatever tropically impacts the SE US would not be allowed to slide up the coast north enough. Rainfall would stay to our S. This could however come at the expense of an onshore cold front for Monday. I’ll take a full and deep dive into the Memorial Day Weekend Outlook this Thursday but this is how it looks right now.

Monday (May 21) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most. Immediate coastal regions might hang near-70. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

Tuesday (May 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ might break 70. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy. Rain and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s/lower-60s for most.

Wednesday (May 23) high temperatures should reach well into the 70s for most. 80s are possible for anyone away from the immediate coast. Skies should be partly sunny with only an isolated chance of a traditional spring shower or thunderstorm. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from low-50s to low-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (May 24) high temperatures should just break 80 for most away from the ocean. The immediate coast should hang in the lower-70s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from low-50s to low-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (May 25) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 90 broken away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Immediate coastal regions should hang in the mid-to-upper 70s. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fail to dip below the 60s statewide.

An early look at the holiday weekend indicates warm temperatures: 80s (maybe flirting with 90 in spots) away from the ocean for most of NJ. 70s for immediate coast. Friday and Saturday look like the drier days. Sunday and Monday could feature rain and storms but what’s showing on the models is not as bad as previously discussed. With any luck, the second half of the weekend could continue to improve. Let’s see where we’re at on Thursday when I’ll issue the full detailed Memorial Day Weekend Outlook. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 21, 2018 13:35

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