Cool Crisp Conditions Expected (Sept 29-Oct 1)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 29, 2017 11:42

Cool Crisp Conditions Expected (Sept 29-Oct 1)

Who’s ready for some hoodie weather?

Discussion: This entire weekend and most of next week will be under high pressure control. A pesky upper-level disturbance is expected to move through late Friday night through Saturday afternoon. This could bring some light rain to New Jersey but such is expected to clear by late-afternoon/early evening on Saturday. The high will slowly crawl across the Great Lakes and through New England before ejecting into the Atlantic Ocean by early-to-mid next week. Between now and Sunday morning, the high will be approaching and therefore we’ll mostly see northerly Canadian-source winds from front-side anti-cyclonic flow. We’ll then see a lull in winds for Sunday-Monday AM as the high pressure sits near-overhead. All this time, conditions should feel cool and crisp. By Monday PM-Tuesday, the high’s position over the ocean should begin warming the region back up with return flow around the back-side of the high. This is the general atmospheric process that should produce a cool and crisp weekend followed by a moderation in temperature next week. There are currently no tropical threats for New Jersey. Florida interests might want to monitor W Caribbean tropical activity for potential impacts in the Oct 8-12 general window.

Friday (Sept 29) high temperatures should reach near-70/lower-70s for most. NNJ elevations might hang in the upper-60s. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-40s/lower-50s for most with NNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens a few degrees colder.

LBI Chowderfest is this weekend!

Saturday (Sept 30) high temperatures should fail to escape the 60s statewide. You might even see NNJ elevations struggle to just break 60. Skies should start out mostly cloudy with light AM rain possible. Skies should clear to at least partly sunny by afternoon. Given the upper-level instability and disturbance, let’s allow for isolated showers through afternoon hours. After that we’re clear for the weekend. Winds should be breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s and 50s again with a small shot of upper-30s for NNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens.

Sunday (Oct 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ could just kiss 70. Skies should be mostly sunny, cool and pleasant. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should drop into the 30s for NNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens. Immediate coastal regions should fall into the lower-50s. The rest of NJ should easily drop into the 40s.

An early look at next week indicates afternoon high temperatures moderating back into the 70s for highs, possibly breaking 80 away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s and 60s across New Jersey. I’m seeing plenty of sunshine but little rainfall FWIW. Let’s take a closer look on Sunday night. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Photo Credit: Ben Wurst of Reclaimed
Model Credit: Ashley Nicole (ELOSIN)

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 29, 2017 11:42

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