Cool Crisp Start (Oct 16-20)

Discussion: The upper levels indicate a transient trough swinging through early this week. This should keep us rather chilly for Monday and Tuesday with NW flow. Wednesday through Sunday then looks beautiful with near-70 highs and sunny skies. Temps should build a degree or two warmer each day with Sunday looking like the warmest. More impressive ridging for October should build in this period. We should then see another frontal passage early next week as the deepest and coldest trough of the season moves in for next week.

Monday (Oct 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s across NJ. After morning remnant showers depart, skies should clear by afternoon. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for many and possibly even the 30s for NNJ elevations, SNJ Pine Barrens and other areas away from the ocean.

Tuesday (Oct 17) high temperatures should struggle to reach/just break 60 statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 30s again.

Wednesday (Oct 18) high temperatures should reach near-70 statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most with immediate coastal areas likely hanging in the 50s.

Thursday (Oct 19) high temperatures should reach near-70 statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 40s.

Friday (Oct 20) high temperatures should reach the lower-70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 40s.

An early look at the weekend indicates more beautiful dry fall weather. We’ll have to keep an eye on drought levels however. Highs should reach into the low-to-mid 70s Saturday-Sunday with overnight lows falling into the 50s for most (40s for NNJ elevations). Sunday looks like the warmest day, possibly reaching the mid-70s. Then we re-load with an even colder air mass next week. Let’s revisit everything in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™