Cooler Start to the Week (May 8-12)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 8, 2017 21:02

Cooler Start to the Week (May 8-12)

This week should start chilly and end milder. Let’s break it down…

Disco: Lower 500mb heights and northerly flow should continue to dominate the pattern through Wednesday. Peak afternoon temperatures under the sun might still feel mild but overnight hours will likely be chilly. NNJ elevations have the best chance at seeing a frost tonight, Tuesday and Wednesday night. Thursday into the weekend looks milder but still not exactly “run to the beach” conditions. Not seeing much rainfall between now and Sunday. I’ve been casually tracking a low pressure organization off our coast for Mother’s Day. That has been trending towards a miss to our SE but a frontal passage could still push some precipitation through, especially under the unsettled and destabilized lower heights. It appears that another area of lower-heights to our W will connect with the current upper-level cut-off low over us and keep us chilly until about the May 18-20 period. It’s this lower-heights condensation of the atmosphere that has the sky looking and feeling more like fall. After that higher heights should return to the E US and temperatures should warm towards at least seasonably average conditions. This is supported by the expected decrease in Pacific North American (PNA) and increase in both Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (AO + NAO). You will see this take shape in-correlation with the departure of Greenland blocking and cooler W US conditions.  Basically stay warm at night, enjoy the beautiful spring conditions during the day and prepare for the heat that’s coming in time for Memorial Day Weekend and beyond. 

Overnight lows tonight should fall into at least the 40s for most of the state. NNJ elevations have the best frost chance but I have a hunch more of NNJ and possibly even parts of WCNJ will see such. Clear skies and light winds should allow for optimal radiational cooling. Will be interesting to see how low temperatures bottomed-out come tomorrow morning.

Tuesday (May 9) high temperatures should reach the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most. NNJ elevations (NWNJ in-general) have a another chance for meeting frost criteria.

Wednesday (May 10) high temperatures should reach into the 60s statewide. Skies should again be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most. NNJ elevations have a another chance for meeting frost criteria.

Thursday (May 11) high temperatures should reach into the 60s statewide. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.

Friday (May 12) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most areas away from the ocean. Coastal areas could be held in the 50s due to onshore flow/ocean temps. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with a small chance of scattered light rain. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E (breezier along the coast). Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most. Coastal areas could again be buffered in the 50s by onshore flow/ocean temps.

An early look at the weekend indicates continued temperatures slightly below average (warmer then now through Wed). While a coastal system could miss us to our SE, a frontal boundary might still push a period of rain through on Sunday. Let’s take a more confident dive into that on Thursday night. Everyone have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 8, 2017 21:02

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