Dec 27: Rainstorm Approaching

Discussion: An area of high pressure is departing the ~Maine area as low pressure cuts through the Great Lakes behind it. This should set up a warm sector rain event for most of Friday. The line of precipitation appears pretty thin however it is expected to train over parts of New Jersey which warrants the heavy rainfall/flash flooding risk. I also expect winds to gust fairly decent, first out of the S ahead of the precipitation and then out of the NW behind the frontal passage.

Precipitation should move in during early hours of Friday AM, reach peak intensity (rain + wind) between late-tomorrow morning and afternoon and then taper off after 8pm Friday evening. We’re not dealing with the center of a synoptic low. That will be way to our NW over the Great Lakes. Instead we’re dealing with the dynamics of a frontal passage. Therefore I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rumble or two embedded within the heavy rainfall. In that case then winds could gust even stronger. At the end of the day this is just another heavy rain event to help close out 2019. We continue to monitor the sudden stratospheric warming and what that might mean for January 2019 regarding cold and snow. I should have answers for you around New Years.

In English: Oh look more rain! It moves in after midnight tonight and tapers off tomorrow evening. During the nastiest of the event, tomorrow late-morning through afternoon, expect periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Once the rainfall shuts off expect NW winds to move in and chill the region down for a cool and dry weekend. I’ll have the detailed weekend outlook to you tomorrow. To all the “Where’s the snow?” people…winter is not cancelled and there is plenty of time for winter storms. This past winter should be a stern reminder of that. While I don’t see any winter storms on the immediate horizon, action should likely step-up in January. I hope you are enjoying the new Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and Android. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™