Dec 6: Weekend Storm Update

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 6, 2018 16:38

Dec 6: Weekend Storm Update

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Discussion: This article will act as both the weekend outlook and winter storm discussion for the Sunday-Monday period.  A weak cold front will push through between tonight and early tomorrow morning. Aside from the start of colder weekend temperatures a few flurries, possibly even snow showers, are possible along the frontal passage tonight/overnight. Everyone is on the hook but NNJ is likely most-favored. Little-to-no accumulations are expected given the lack of moisture and speed of the front. The weekend then looks cold and dry for Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows into the teens/20s with afternoon highs struggling to escape the 30s for most. Coastal SNJ could still reach near-40 but let’s face it…that’s a cold day for SENJ. NW flow in-general should dominate the wind pattern for the weekend.

Sunday-Monday is our period of storm signal interest. There will no doubt be a storm that ejects into the Atlantic Ocean over the east coast. Depending on what weather sources you follow, you’re going to see major snow storm imagery come out of places like North Carolina and parts of Virginia Sunday PM-Monday AM. The question is how far N will precipitation extend. Let’s get the modelology out of the way. The models are nearly unanimous in all snow staying to the S of even Cape May, NJ. The reason for this is the modeled confluence produced by a few different Canadian shortwaves. Models currently predict the confluence as strong and in the perfect place to suppress the system to the S of NJ via high pressure at the surface. For now this is how the models see it and that’s why you have zero chance of snow on most of your point-and-click/automated forecasting apps.

Now let’s talk meteorology. We have a well-organized low departing a few hundred miles S of OBX into the Atlantic Ocean. We have to assume that the northernmost extent of precipitation could extend further N than what surface model guidance is suggesting. I’ve seen it many times. Not enough to guarantee it but enough to know it’s possible. Therefore, I am still leaving extreme SNJ in the game for some snowfall in the Sunday PM-Monday AM period. Draw a line from Washington DC to Atlantic City. Everyone N of this line will likely be snow-free all weekend barring any MAJOR changes in the 11th hour of observable data. But for everyone below the line drawn from DC-AC, I am not prepared to take your snow chances off the table completely. I might be able to do that by tomorrow night/Saturday AM but for now I have to allow the wildcard chance that precipitation shield reaches further N than current model guidance. The January 30, 2010 system was a very similar look to this heading in from this time period. 6-9 inches later for Atlantic City and 9-12 inches later for Cape May and it was just a REAL. NICE. SURPRISE. Clark. The northern 2/3 of NJ can likely relax on snow expectations for now.

In English: I hope you are enjoying the new Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and Android. A cold front moves through tonight with flurries/snow showers possible overnight (NNJ favored but all of NJ could see with little-to-no accumulation expected). Nothing crazy, a brief flizzard at most. Friday and Saturday look cold, sunny and dry with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens/20s. NNJ elevations and Pine Barrens will be the coldest spots while the SENJ coast will be most-buffered near-40. Sunday looks like more of the same for NNJ and CNJ. SNJ is the million dollar question. We know a big snow storm will be passing by to our S in the Carolinas/Virgina area. I am still leaving a small chance for snow to make it into parts of Delmarva and extreme SNJ (S of a line drawn from Washington DC to Atlantic City, NJ). I need another 24 hours, maybe 36 hours (Saturday afternoon) before ruling out SNJ snow completely. With that said, Cape May County would be the most-favored to see snowfall as the snow would approach from the S if it’s going to reach SNJ. Let’s check back in tomorrow night for any developments in model guidance and/or live observations. Have a great rest of your Thursday and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 6, 2018 16:38

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