December Discussion with WeatherTrends360

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 30, 2018 13:23

December Discussion with WeatherTrends360

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how December 2018 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into climatologically-similar regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain and Newark Basin (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

nnj12-2018

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

cnj12-2018

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

snj12-2018

Discussion: The common theme for all three above areas of NJ includes a temperature spike towards the end of this weekend and 1-2 more transient warm spells nested within an overall average/cold December. In general the first half of December looks to feature more precipitation than the second half. It is now go time for wintry precipitation. Current wintry signals include the December 4-5 and December 8-10 periods. I am currently watching these signals for wintry NJ impacts but there will likely be others later in the month. The El Nino continues to hold but it’s weak with west-based Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA). Traditionally west-based SSTA are more favorable for Mid-Atlantic US snow than east-based SSTA. Also the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which measures the greatest tropical forcing on the equator, is supportive for a cold and possibly snowy first half of December. If any major storm systems arise I will provide daily articles on approach. Otherwise all eyes now turn to Dec 4-5 and Dec 8-10 as our first wintry potentials in Meteorological Winter 2018-2019. Please keep in mind that ocean temperatures are still in the mid-to-upper 40s which traditionally means rain along and SE of the I-95 corridor. Therefore these approaching December systems could feature snow/rain lines running through NJ with NWNJ favored the coldest. Have a great December and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 30, 2018 13:23

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