Decent Summer Week Expected (July 11-15)

I don’t need to tell you that today, like yesterday, is a nice day. We can thank an area of high pressure for this which should keep the status quo for the first part of the week. Once high pressure moves offshore (~early midweek), the southerly flow will return bringing heat and humidity back to the region. I don’t expect the heat to be excessive but enough to justify average summery conditions for July (which is generally hot). With that comes the chance for showers and thunderstorms but nothing that constitutes even close to a washout…just localized short-lived nuisances in hit-or-miss fashion. Thursday-Friday looks like the better day of the week for thunderstorm chances given the building humidity. Let’s break it down:

Monday (July 11) high temperatures should reach  the low-to-mid 80s for most (upper-70s along the coast). Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be very light and variable in direction. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most of NJ with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the upper-50s.

Tuesday (July 12) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s away from the ocean and possibly just break 80 along the coast. Skies should be mostly sunny with humidity starting to trickle back in (can’t rule out an isolated PM pop-up). Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Wednesday (July 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s away from the ocean. I could see interior CNJ/SNJ flirting with 90. The coast should be held to the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny and humid (can’t rule out an isolated PM pop-up). Winds should remain light out of the S. Overnight lows should have trouble falling below 70 statewide with the exception of the NNJ elevations.

Thursday (July 14) high temperatures should reach 90 away from the ocean. The coast should be held to the mid-80s. Skies should be mostly sunny and humid (can’t rule out a isolated-to-scattered PM showers/storms). Winds should remain out of the S but light-to-breezy. Overnight lows should again have trouble falling below 70 statewide.

Friday (July 15) high temperatures should break 90 statewide. The coast might fall just short in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be partly-sunny and humid with showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should have trouble falling below 70 statewide with the exception of the NNJ elevations.

Notes of Interest: Ocean surface temperatures along the entire Jersey Shore are in the lower-70s. This is great for swimming and also means a day of onshore flow is now pleasant instead of chilly. Stargazing will be better tonight and Tuesday night compared to the rest of the week due to humidity-related haze. We’re getting further into the 2016 hurricane season but tropics are currently quiet.

An early look at the weekend indicates more warmth and humidity with sunny skies for the most part…but still the chance for short-lived pop-up PM showers and thunderstorms. Run-of-mill for NJ in July. Let’s revisit Thursday evening to explore any changes in model guidance/live observations. Have a great week and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™