Expected Tuesday Snowfall Accumulations

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 11, 2016 21:57

Expected Tuesday Snowfall Accumulations

A clipper will track through the Great Lakes and bring negligible amounts of snow to most of New Jersey on Tuesday. It will then transfer and bomb out in the Gulf of Maine before stalling in E. Canada. Here’s how I see it playing out.

Temperatures will surge into the lower 40s by early Tuesday afternoon for the southern 2/3 of New Jersey. The northern 1/3 of New Jersey (elevations) should be held in the 30s. This surge in temperatures at the surface will be due to a brief period of southerly flow ahead of the Arctic cold front. The mid-to-upper levels will remain cold so once the front is through, winds should change to the NW—crashing temperatures at the surface.

KaboomWinterHats

The most recent short-range model guidance suggests that precipitation will happen with the frontal passage in the form of a few short bursts. Therefore I expect a lot of snow to fall without accumulating, especially for the lower 2/3 of New Jersey. NNJ elevations should be the only region who could squeeze out an inch from this when all is said and done (maybe two locally). The rest of New Jersey might be looking at something similar to the picture above or nothing at all due to snow melting on contact.

This system really isn’t a big deal accumulation-wise. The more noticeable aspects of it IMO will be the NW wind gusts and brutal wind chills once the Arctic front is through.  Once the system is through, everyone should bundle up for a frigid Tuesday night into Wednesday.

In English: Expect periods of snowfall tomorrow afternoon into early evening. Whiteout conditions (flizzards) are possible which can temporarily limit visibility so please be careful. The upper elevations of NNJ could squeeze out an inch (two would be a nice surprise). The general I-95 corridor area could end up with a dusting to an inch. Points S and E of I-95/NJTP should expect anything from white rain (snow that melts on contact) to nothing at all.  Temps then crash overnight into Wednesday as New Jersey sits in an Arctic air mass.

If for some reason live observations are screaming something different tomorrow then I will update. Otherwise again, this is not a big deal. It might just time poorly with tomorrow’s PM rush hour, creating nuisance conditions. The biggest threat would then be driving mentality during snowfall. Please be safe out there! JC

 

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 11, 2016 21:57

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