Feb 15: First Call Weekend Snow Map

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 15, 2018 16:42

Feb 15: First Call Weekend Snow Map

snowmap2-15-2018

Click here for full-resolution impact map!

Discussion: Not much has changed since last night’s article. We have a weak coastal low tracking close to SENJ. That’s going to put zone A and B in the most probable zone for a snow/rain mix or even just cold rain only, especially along coastal areas. Onshore flow from the low will be the culprit for this over 37-39F degree ocean surface temperatures. With that said, points SE of I-95 should expect little-to-no accumulation as you move from I-95 towards the SENJ coast.

Points along I-95 (zone D) are likely to see light accumulations and points NW of I-95 are likely to see light-to-significant accumulations. I have no doubt that we could see a period or two of heavy snowfall in the jackpot zone (zones E and F). What’s preventing this system from being a bigger snowfall accumulation is duration. We’re looking at 6-8 hours of precipitation. That coupled with the warmer boundary layer means that 6-8 inches is probably the biggest jackpot this system could dump if reaching maximum potential (for those in NJ along and NW of I-95).

The rain zone (SE of I-95), which is also the jackpot zone from the Jan 3-4 blizzard earlier this year, will be too warm. NOT BECAUSE IT WAS 60+ TODAY/TOMORROW. A cold front will drop all surface temperatures below freezing by Saturday morning so that’s out of play. The reason for the warmer boundary level that could creep back to the I-95 corridor is from onshore flow ahead and to the N of the weak coastal low. There is no high pressure to our N to force the lower-levels colder. It’s as simple as that.

Timing looks like early-to-mid Saturday evening to early Sunday AM hours. Therefore sun angle should not be a problem. As I said last night, this could be a plowable, possibly significant snowfall, but likely not a major snow event. It’s a thread the needle scenario nested between two milder periods of weather.

In English: Expect another mild day tomorrow to start. Temps will then crash tomorrow evening and fall well-below freezing by Saturday morning. All of NJ is expected to see precipitation between Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. Precipitation should be wintry along and NW of I-95 and non-wintry SE of I-95. We could all end as snow but with not much time left given how short-duration this event should be. Our map above indicates our first call. Our final call will be tomorrow with any necessary adjustments made. Have a great night and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 15, 2018 16:42

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