Feb 16: Tuesday Morning Observations
A lot of rain is about to fall between now and afternoon hours. The low is tracking through PA from S/SW to N/NE towards interior New England. As it does so, a very heavy band of precipitation will move through New Jersey with mild temperatures and gusty southerly winds. Here’s the latest radar:
All remaining precipitation should fall in the form of rain. Expect 1-2 inches of rainfall over just a few hour period sometime between now and about 4PM. This should present flooding issues for areas of poor drainage. Sustained winds of 15-25mph with gusts to 40-50mph are possible out of the S/SW until the rain is through. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few embedded thunderstorms within the heaviest areas of rainfall. We then taper off and dry out this evening.
Moving forward, light rain/snow is possible tomorrow morning from the remnants of a trailing clipper. We’re then looking at a mild close to the week. Long range guidance, especially ensembles, are screaming winter storm in the February 23-25 period. I’ll touch more on both tomorrow’s light snow event and long-range potential this evening. Tomorrow morning, I’ll put out a detailed 5-day forecast that will get us through the weekend.
In English: Heavy rain with gusty southerly winds should occur between now and afternoon hours. We then dry out tonight but could see some light snow and/or rain tomorrow. The weekend looks mild and clear but we now begin tracking a possible late-February winter storm showing on long-range model guidance for the February 23-25 period. Have a great day and be safe! JC