Feb 9: Watching Thursday-Friday for Snow

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 9, 2015 11:48

Feb 9: Watching Thursday-Friday for Snow

As today’s disturbance moves away by early Tuesday morning, it will pull down cold air behind it from the north. A clipper is modeled to move across the Great Lakes and transfer southward to a coastal low formation this Thursday-Friday. The coastal low then deepens while slowly pulling away. Should this happen, it presents a decent snow threat for all of New Jersey. I have to emphasize that these clipper-transfers are extremely difficult to forecast and have high volatility to bust. I simply can’t ignore the GFS when it’s screaming snow storm under 100 hours away though. Let’s look at some 850mb maps showing pressure, temperature, and precipitation.

This first period (Thursday morning-afternoon) is showing how far northward the low comes in from the west. It crosses the Great Lakes and hits a wall in upstate NY.

gfs

The next period shows how far south the clipper transfers and forms a coastal low. At this point (Thursday afternoon-evening), it’s cold enough for snow in all of New Jersey.

gfs

By early AM Friday, the low is rapidly intensifying and pulling away from New Jersey. Bands of snow are still being kicked into New Jersey from the ocean but overall, precipitation is pulling away.

gfs

There’s no way I can talk about expected snow accumulations with this volatile of a setup. I’m hesitant to even mention this given recent model performance but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t—not with the upgraded GFS showing such solution within this time range.

In English: A period of snow is possible from Thursday morning/afternoon until early Friday morning. I’ll be tracking closely given the proximity of the event (less than 100 hours away). Be safe! JC

Model images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

coupon Ramsey Outdoors

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 9, 2015 11:48

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