Frigid Weekend Expected (Feb 11-14)

The weekend looks frigid and another winter storm signal is showing for early next week. Let’s break it all down.

Today‘s high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 30s statewide. AM snow bands should move offshore but we’re subject to random localized snow showers here and there between periods of sunshine. Winds are blowing 10-20mph out of the W for the lower 2/3 of the state (less in NNJ). Overnight lows should drop into the teens for NNJ elevations and 20s for the rest of New Jersey. Random flurries/snow showers will remain possible overnight.

Thursday (Feb 11) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 20s. Isolated-to-scattered flurries and snow showers are again possible with partly sunny skies. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from single digits for NNJ elevations to about 20 at the immediate SNJ coast.

Friday (Feb 12) high temperatures should reach the mid-t0-upper 20s for most (maybe low-30 for the SNJ coast). Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Isolated-to-scattered flurries and snow showers are possible, moreso overnight than during the day. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should drop into the teens for NNJ elevations and 20s for the rest of New Jersey.

Saturday (Feb 13) high temperatures should reach the teens for NNJ elevations and maybe the 20s for the rest of the state. Skies should be partly cloudy. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall below zero for NNJ elevations while the rest of the state drops into the single digits.

Sunday (Feb 14) high temperatures should reach the teens for NNJ elevations and maybe the 20s for the rest of the state. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the NW but should subside by evening hours. Overnight lows should fall below zero for NNJ elevations while the rest of the state drops into the single digits.

Winter Storm Discussion for Feb 15-16: Models are hinting at a low pressure disturbance impacting our region this coming Monday into Tuesday. Anything from a progressive quick snow event to a much stronger coastal hugger (snow to sleet/freezing rain to train) is modeled. I like the teleconnection profile with both AO and NAO transitioning from slightly negative to positive as well as the PNA transitioning from positive to negative. This tells me that something wants to come through. This is just a discussion for now but I’ll be monitoring this system’s evolution closely over the next few days.

In English: The light snow from overnight/this morning is moving out. Much colder (Arctic) air is moving in with temperatures bottoming out this Saturday-Sunday (freezing pipes/etc. could be an issue). We then turn our attention to a strong winter storm signal for Monday-Tuesday. Be safe and have a great day!

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™