Great Start. Wet and Windy Finish (Oct 27-29)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 26, 2017 15:48

Great Start. Wet and Windy Finish (Oct 27-29)

Discussion: We have a deep trough swinging through our region between Sunday and Monday, reenforced by strong ridging over the W US/Alaska (+PNA). This jet stream pattern has been affected by the Typhoon that curved into the Bering Sea earlier this week. We also have a surface feature coming out of the tropics. While this should be far below-Sandy conditions, we are facing a late-October capture scenario again. The difference this time is that there will not be a major hurricane capture involved like with Sandy. Instead we’re dealing with a sub-tropical low of a much less destructive nature. If the physics thread the needle then we could be looking at a high-impact rain and wind event. If the physics do not thread the needle then we could be looking at a much less-impact frontal rain event. Computer weather model guidance is split on phase timing…

First scenario: The capture is late (like the latest GFS). This would mean a routine frontal passage for us with 1-3 inches of rainfall and 20-30mph winds (gusts to 40mph). This would ultimately mean a stronger storm system for New England but with New Jersey mostly spared with a run-of-mill rainstorm.

Second scenario: The capture is early (like the latest Euro). This would mean a much stronger rainstorm for New Jersey with 3-6 inches of rainfall and 30-50mph winds (gusts to 60mph).

Either scenario is still possible with ranging scenarios between. Regardless, I would expect rain and wind between Sunday morning and Monday morning at this point. Whether or not such conditions will be of nuisance or damaging caliber is yet TBD. I’ll probably take another look on Saturday morning to let guidance evolve some more and to study live observations (which models the actual conditions are following upstream). Otherwise Friday, Saturday and most of next week look seasonably average with no major weather threats on the visible horizon.

Friday (Oct 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s statewide, after a chilly AM start. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most with NNJ elevations and SNJ interior Pine Barrens likely dipping into the 30s. Coastal areas could hang in the lower-50s.

Who is coming to Operation Halloween this weekend?

Saturday (Oct 28) high temperatures should range from mid-60s to near-70 statewide. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with coastal areas possibly only falling to the low-60s.

Sunday (Oct 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with moderate-to-heavy rainfall and moderate-to-high wind gusts possible. Winds should be strong and gusty out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most.

An early look at next week indicates cooler conditions. Let’s allow through noon on Monday for any remnant rainfall to move out. Most rainfall should be finished by early-to-late morning. We should then expect cooler flow out of the NW which will likely prevent temperatures from escaping the 50s during the day and cause overnight lows to fall into frost territory (freeze territory for NNJ elevations and SNJ interior Pine Barrens).  Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Have a great weekend and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 26, 2017 15:48

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