Hazy Hot Humid Conditions Continue (July 17-21)

Another hot, hazy and humid week is expected. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: 250mb S/SW winds are currently positioned over New Jersey ahead of a positive-axis weak upper-level trough. It appears that this trough will eventually produce a weak 500mb shortwave that will eventually absorb into an interior E US ridge before everything moves out together towards a traditional Bermuda high setup at the surface…which means more summery weather (even warmer than now). That’s closer to this weekend and into next week though. For the first half of this week, hot and humid conditions should persist with occasional shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily during afternoon-evening hours. Once we get to Wednesday-forward, we bake. Ocean temperatures have warmed significantly with very little up-welling like we saw over the past few weeks. The three main buoys I follow off the Cape May-Sandy Hook Jersey coast are all reading 74F today. We’re now in that period where such cooler ocean air likes to slide under the warmer air over the coast (sea breeze fronts). 9 times out of 10 this provides heavenly natural air conditioning for beach-goers on the immediate coast. 1 time out of 10 it provides enough lift to trigger stationary air-mass thunderstorms which tend to produce flash-flooding. Just something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, run-of-mill Jersey summer conditions should continue. 

Monday (July 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should top out in the lower-80s. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible statewide but moreso for NWNJ. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-60s/lower-70s statewide.

Tuesday (July 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s away from the ocean. Interior CNJ/SNJ could flirt with breaking 90. Immediate coastal areas should top out in the lower-80s. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds with a humid feel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible statewide. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-60s/lower-70s statewide.

Wednesday (July 19) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 90s away from the ocean, especially in CNJ/SNJ. The rest of the state should top out in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with persistent humidity. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to fall below 70 for most. NNJ elevations might dip into the upper-60s.

Thursday (July 20) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 90s away from the ocean. Interior CNJ/SNJ could take a run at 95+. Even the coast could take a run at upper-80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with persistent humidity. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the lower-70s statewide.

Friday (July 21) high temperatures should again reach into the 90s for many away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas could hang in the 80s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with a slight reduction (not total elimination) of humidity. This will be due to light NW winds behind a weak passing front. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for many expect for the immediate SENJ coast which could hang around 70.

An early look at the weekend indicates more of the same with Friday and Saturday looking like the drier days. Sunday looks unsettled with a possible disturbance moving through. Let’s take a closer look at the weekend in a few days when guidance and observations are realistically within range. I took the above photo a few years back from Long Beach Island. This is how the sun looks when setting in hot and humid air. This is how I expect it to look this week. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™