Heat to Break by End of Week

Discussion: Most of NJ is nearing 90 if not just over. Immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas are ranging 70-80 with 80s just inland. Seeing some sea breeze front induced storm cells popping in coastal N Ocean County. Can probably expect this to expand a little up and down the shore. Isolated pop-ups are possible for the rest of NJ as well heading into this evening. The status quo should continue through tomorrow, which is hot and humid with iso PM storms. Wednesday and Thursday look transitional as a boundary (cold front) will slowly make its way from NW to SE across NJ. This boundary should mean 80s with rain and storms for Wed and Thurs. The boundary will pass through NWNJ first (probably Wed afternoon/evening) and SENJ last (by Thursday PM). One of those night and day differences depending on which side of the boundary you’re on. Hot and humid to the SE of the boundary. Cooler and drier to the NW of it. But once that’s through, a trough will drop into the E US and cut-off/meander around the E US in response to high/northerly ridging in the W US/C US/SW Canada areas. This lower height energy might fuel a coastal storm well to the E of NJ but NJ will enjoy a cool and dry environment from Friday through at least Sunday. So in summary, we’ll transition from hot and humid (Mon-Tues) to warm, unsettled, and humid (Wed-Thurs) to warm, clear, and pleasant (Fri-Sun).  

Monday (Aug 8) high temperatures should max in the low-to-mid 90s away from the ocean. Coastal areas only 70s and 80s per sea breeze. Hot and humid conditions should continue with isolated thunderstorms possible afternoon-evening. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fail to dip below the mid-70s statewide.

Tuesday (Aug 9) high temperatures should near 100 for the typical warmer locations (interior CNJ/SNJ). Otherwise 90+ is a solid bet. Skies should be mixed with a very humid feel. More pop-up isolated thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the W/SW for most. SENJ a little breezier out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should again stay above 70 for most.

Wednesday (Aug 10) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 80s but humidity should remain elevated. Not exactly total relief just yet. Warm and humid instead of hot and humid I suppose. NWNJ would see the largest cooldown feel of NJ. SENJ would see the least. The day looks very unsettled and stormy though with scattered-to-widespread showers and thunderstorms possible, especially for PM hours. Winds look light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from 65-70 from N to S.

Thursday (Aug 11) high temperatures should behave similar to Wednesday…80s for most. The day could be very different from NWNJ (cooler and drier) to SENJ (still hanging onto humidity). Ultimately the cooler and drier air will win out but exact timing is uncertain prior to evening/overnight hours. Behind the cold front boundary will be light NW winds allowing overnight lows to drop into the 60s for all.

Friday (Aug 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s with plenty of sunshine. Looking rather spectacular IMO. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates the clear and pleasant conditions lasting through Sunday. A spectacular weekend if this holds. We’d probably restart a humid cycle next Monday or Tuesday with some solid rain chances next week. Let’s see if the data holds. Please stay as cool and hydrated as possible especially today and tomorrow. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™