Hello Fall! (Oct 12-14)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 11, 2018 21:42

Hello Fall! (Oct 12-14)

Discussion: Thursday’s overnight rain, wind and thunderstorms associated with Michael’s remnants should move out by late-morning Friday. The associated energy should absorb into the upper jet and continue eastward with the mid-latitude westerlies. In the upper levels the jet stream will finally push southward over the Mid-Atlantic US this weekend. 500mb height anomalies will take a dive below normal for an extended period of time. You might see the ridge try to fight back next Monday/Tuesday but another trough will be there to squash it. For this weekend at the surface it means much cooler temperatures than the recent status quo. Friday looks windy as the backside of Michael’s circulation teams up with a low in SE Canada and a high near Missouri. That should create an impressive NW jet. Surface winds should subside by Saturday night but the trough in general should keep the weekend feelz more like November than October. Frost is likely for at least NNJ elevations.

Real Quick Tonight (Thursday night): The overnight period of rain, wind and embedded thunderstorms could pack a quick but manageable whoopin into the AM hours of Friday. The kind of wind/thunder that wakes you up in the middle of the night. Consider yourself notified.

Friday (Oct 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should start mostly cloudy early but break up by afternoon for some sun. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 NNJ TO SNJ as winds subside. It won’t take long for afternoon temperatures to crash, especially heading into sunset.

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Saturday (Oct 13) high temperatures should reach the upper-50s/lower-60s for most. Skies should be mixed with spotty showers possible between morning and early afternoon. It’s a quick mover so should be in and out whatever falls. Dry skies after that. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Oct 14) high temperatures should reach near-60 again for most. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from low-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates possible showers on Tuesday. Otherwise highs in the 60s lows in the 40s type stuff (down into 30s for NNJ elevations overnight). I think we’re finally finished with the muggy pattern. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 11, 2018 21:42

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