Hot Unsettled Conditions Expected (July 10-14)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 10, 2017 13:34

Hot Unsettled Conditions Expected (July 10-14)

Hot, humid and unsettled conditions should dominate this week. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: The strongest 250mb winds should remain over/just north of the Mid-Atlantic US region this week. This is reflective of the stubborn high pressure ridge set up in the W/SW US. This should still allow an area of above-average 500mb heights to establish over New Jersey and keep the environment warm and humid overall. 850mb temps indicate warmer W/SW flow for much of this week (through Thursday). This should keep the air warm and the ocean temps slightly cooler due to water density upwelling. The warmer water hangs at the surface. W flow pushes it away from the coast and cooler water beneath replaces the surface. Last week we had some onshore flow which did the opposite and pushed the warmer surface waters of the gulf stream towards the coast. I believe a few immediate coastal readings indicated 70F. We’re still about 6-8 weeks away from peak coastal surface temperatures so onward we go with back-and-forth flow. Monday looks like more of an isolated shower/thunderstorm threat at most. Tuesday through Thursday however looks more scattered and even somewhat widespread of a threat. There should be periods of sun, clouds and rain/storms but the common denominator is warmth, humidity and unsettled conditions through at least Thursday. Friday looks slightly cooler but still unsettled. The weekend should offer improvement in theory.

Tropics: The tropics are mostly quiet. Tropical Depression 4 is expected to weaken into just a wave of rain by the time it nears the Bahamas/Florida area this ~Thursday. We then have some long-range models (in fantasy range – 300+ hours) spitting out some pretty wild solutions for the east coast in the July 19-27 period. We call this fantasy range because most big modeled systems from this far out traditionally fizzle or miss the east coast when we get within the range that matters (under 192 hours). We see this with both winter and tropical systems. Therefore, if this system is still modeled to impact the east coast within a 192 hour window, then I’ll get out of bed for it. Otherwise fantasy range will be fantasy range and the click-bait hype community will try to capitalize on it. Just keep a level head and try not to panic. If something big looks to actually hit, I’ll make sure you know about it with plenty of time to prepare. On a side note, we are heading closer to peak tropics season (peak is late-Aug through Sept). So it IS time to generally monitor any real tropical threats that arise.

Monday (July 10) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ might flirt with 90 while coastal regions just break 80. Skies should be mostly sunny and humid with chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should have trouble dipping below 70 outside of NNJ elevations.

Tuesday (July 11) high temperatures should break 90 away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas and NNJ elevations might hang in the 80s. Skies should be partly sunny and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the lower-70s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the upper-60s.

Wednesday (July 12) high temperatures should again break 90 away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas and NNJ elevations should likely hang in the 80s again. Skies should be partly sunny and humid with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the lower-70s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the upper-60s.

Thursday (July 13) high temperatures should again break 90 away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas and NNJ elevations should likely hang in the 80s again. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Elevated humidity should sustain. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the lower-70s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the upper-60s.

Friday (July 14) high temperatures should just break 80 for most. NNJ elevations might hang in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. Not an all day washout but highly unsettled. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most.

An early look at the weekend indicates highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s in general across New Jersey. I can’t say it will be completely dry as pop-up cells are possible any day this time of year. However, skies are looking partly-to-mostly sunny with some (not total) relief from the humidity. Let’s take a closer look on Thursday. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 10, 2017 13:34

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