Jan 10: More Snow for the Weekend?

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 10, 2017 20:11

Jan 10: More Snow for the Weekend?

It’s a thread the needle situation but it just might time perfectly for some more snow this weekend. Let’s break it down…

Disco: It has been well advertised on model guidance that the next few weeks of January will be on the milder side overall. However, if a strong enough area of high pressure were to set up to our N in the right location, it would block in cold air over our region for a transient period. Furthermore, if an area of low pressure were to perfectly track and time with this then it should theoretically drop snow across New Jersey. Well, models are hinting at this and we’ve been tracking aggressively. Here’s the latest 18Z GFS showing precipitation between 8PM Saturday and 1AM Sunday to illustrate the general idea:

precip_6hourly_NECONUS_hr108

It’s a very volatile situation and that needs to be drilled-in at this point given the required timing of synoptic players. But you could assume however that NNJ and parts of CNJ would be the coldest and most likely to be all snow. SNJ would be the least cold, being closer to the low, and would therefore be most susceptible to any possible mixing.

For now we’ll monitor the general concept as drawn by model guidance. We’ll continue to weigh that against live observations. Assuming this system is still showing on Thursday, we’ll begin issuing impact maps. At this point in time, it does not seem major.

In English: Rain moves in overnight tonight. NWNJ could possibly start with a wintry mix but everyone should end as rain by 9AM or so. Winds could become gusty during early Wednesday AM hours when the heaviest rain moves through. FWIW I’ve seen worse early-morning lightning setups than this. Foggy conditions are also expected so please be careful driving. We’re then mild heading into the weekend but snow is in the forecast for Saturday. As of right now it doesn’t look like a huge event but could certainly be disruptive if everything were to perfectly time together. We’ll be tracking and updating you daily. Have a nice night and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 10, 2017 20:11

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