Jan 12: Weekend Snow Update

Snow is expected on Saturday. Let’s break it down…

Click here to view full resolution impact map.

Disco: An stronger-than-average area of high pressure will pass to the N of our region this weekend. This will force colder air southward over New Jersey and combat the warmer flow coming in from the S along a weak wave of low pressure set to ride a stalled frontal boundary. When all is said and done, light snow showers are expected for NNJ and CNJ. SNJ is currently modeled for the heaviest snowfall but given the marginal temperature profile, stickage could be jeopardized, especially closer to the SNJ coast.

There are two scenarios that could produce more snow for SNJ: Either banding of heavier precipitation could bring down some colder air and override the warmer surface…or…the high pressure could push the frontal boundary a little further S bringing more of SNJ into a favorable surface temperature profile to support accumulations. However, if the frontal boundary is not pushed far enough S and precipitation is lighter…then SNJ would be looking at less accumulations with possibly sleet or rain mixing in. We’re thinking that freezing drizzle is possible to end the event later Saturday night. We’ve taken that into account for our map above.

In English: Light snow is expected this weekend between Saturday morning and Saturday night. Personalized and hyperlocal timing alerts were sent to My Pocket Meteorologist customers earlier today. The map above illustrates our current rational thoughts based on the latest guidance and live observations. In the snowiest case possible of over-performance, I could maybe see NNJ and CNJ picking up 1-3 with SNJ picking up 2-4. But mother nature would have to thread the needle for that. It could happen but such should be treated as a wild card. As of now, this isn’t looking like a big deal. I’ll have a final call out tomorrow but I don’t expect much to change. Have a great day and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™