Jan 18: Initial Thoughts on Jan 23-24

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 18, 2017 19:43

Jan 18: Initial Thoughts on Jan 23-24

A mature low pressure system is expected to impact our region in the January 23-24 period. Right now it looks like rain and wind for New Jersey.

Disco: A negatively-tilted trough at the jet stream level is quite evident in this time-frame. This allows the back-leaning frontward jet streak to enhance the surface energy below:

300mb_geopotential_height_winds_CONUS_hr132

At 500mb a closed-off low, nested within the upper-level trough, barrels through from Texas to OBX:

500mb_geopotential_height_anomaly_mslp_CONUS_hr132

Another upper-level low briefly closes off over PA. This yanks the surface low N towards our area and under the greatest jet streak lifting. The end result at the surface is a significant rain event with gusty winds wrapped around a sub-990mb low…that tracks pretty darn close to the Jersey shore. This could potentially mean coastal flooding and beach erosion. It could also mean flash flooding under areas of heavy rainfall, as indicated in the below 3-hour surface frame:

precip_1hourly_NECONUS_hr132

There is a lot of room for trending through the weekend. I’m currently real skeptical of the upper-level and surface low displacement. ¬†With so much uncertainty, surface solutions should vary over the next few days. Regardless, at least some level of impact is supported by dynamics at all layers. Again, right now it looks like a rain and wind event.

In English: Significant guidance agrees on a mature low pressure system impacting the region in the January 23-24 period. As currently modeled, our general EPA/NJ/MD/DE region would see moderate-to-heavy rainfall and gusty winds. We’ll continue monitor and discuss for now. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 18, 2017 19:43

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