Jan 27: Snow Discussion

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 27, 2017 10:39

Jan 27: Snow Discussion

Some snow possibilities are starting to show up on model guidance. Let’s break it down…

If I had a nickel every time someone asked me “When’s it going to snow? or “Where’s the snow?” I’d be working Weather NJ full-time. So this article is going to focus only on snow possibilities in the near future. They are not forecasts. Just the periods I’m watching and discussing for now.

Sunday into Monday (Jan 29-30): This is the first piece of energy to watch. It would be a clipper, which is a northern stream system that likes to form in the Alberta area of Canada. They typically move through fast but sometimes can deliver quick hits of light, sometimes significant, accumulation. This Sunday-Monday is modeled very weak so not expecting anything disruptive as of now. Light snow is certainly possible but model guidance currently paints this as light scattered snow showers.

Tuesday into Wednesday (Jan 31-Feb 1): This is another clipper however a bit more robust on model guidance. We’ll have some light SW flow that won’t make it “too warm for snow” but might create a marginal lower-level/non-stickable surface for points SE. Just scattered snow showers are currently modeled across the entire region but it does look like a stronger system than Sunday into Monday overall.

Friday (Feb 3): The GFS is suggesting a disturbance timing perfectly with high pressure to the north. This would produce light-to-significant accumulations if it threads the needle perfectly. Meteorologically it’s possible but I would like to see some other guidance come on-board with it. Much more uncertainty with this one.

Sunday into Monday (Feb 5-6): This system has the most potential for a winter storm however is the most uncertain being the furthest out. There is decent model consensus for this system but we’re likely stuck watching models flip-flop until the actual energy comes onshore on the W US coast. Only then will we have properly sampled data to compare with live observations. Back burner for now but will certainly discuss as we further approach. My advice would be to simply use the model consensus as a general storm signal for now.

So there it is…4 snow possibilities in the next 10 days. As you are all aware, all could either fizzle or produce. I don’t have a forecast yet for any of them but these are the periods I’ll be watching as we move through the colder pattern over the next 10 days. If this Sunday into Monday looks worthy, I’ll write an article about it on Saturday with anticipated impacts. If it remains weak, I’ll likely just include it in discussion on Sunday with the Monday-Friday outlook.

Kaboom hoodies are back. Purchase does not guarantee snow but does lock-in great selfie potential and profits go towards a good cause. Everyone have a great weekend. Please stay warm and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 27, 2017 10:39

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