Jan 30: Flizzards Possible Today

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 30, 2017 11:13

Jan 30: Flizzards Possible Today

Instability-driven snow showers are possible later this afternoon into evening. Let’s break it down…

First, a quick recap of this morning. The light snow event happened but about 20-30 miles SE of expectation. Overnight dynamics panned out a bit flatter than expected. Cape May County verified with the highest totals while parts of Cumberland and Atlantic (surrounding counties) saw a dusting. This 20-30 mile shift removed most of Cumberland, E Burlington and S Ocean from the equation. Here are the official Cape May County totals from the NWS at Mt. Holly, NJ:

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Onto the next snow possibility. This model is the ultra short-range HRRR showing precipitation between 5-6pm:

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Just like in the warmer months where instability helps produce thunderstorms, it can happen in the winter too with snow showers and squalls. This evening we’re dealing with some pretty impressive local dynamics which could produce quick-passing snow showers at a hyper-local level. This cluster of snow showers would move from NW to SE through NJ between about 3PM and 9PM.

Due to their quick-moving nature, I wouldn’t expect much to accumulate on roads and paved surfaces. Maybe a coating on natural surfaces and parked cars. The biggest threat would be a temporary reduction in visibility due to a short-but-heavy burst of snow. We then look to Tuesday morning for another wave to bring light snow to NNJ (mostly along and N of I-78). I’ll have a snow map out on that later tonight.

In English: Quick moving flizzards are possible later this afternoon through evening. They should move in from the NW and depart to our SE. At this point, model guidance is targeting the lower 2/3 of NJ. Not everyone will see them due to their scattered nature but those who do could see a decent but quick burst of snow. Accumulations should be little-to-none but visibility could be temporarily reduced directly underneath. We then look to another light snow event but this one is focused on NNJ Tuesday morning. I’ll have more on that later tonight after reviewing today’s data. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 30, 2017 11:13

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