Jan 31: What Superbowl Storm?

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 31, 2017 19:37

Jan 31: What Superbowl Storm?

What once looked like a major snow storm on fantasy-range model guidance now appears weak. Let’s break it down…

Disco: A low pressure system will come off the Pacific Ocean onto the W US coast near N California/Oregon in a few days. This will be the energy that should track across the US towards the east coast. If the low passes to our S then we will get a winter storm. If the low passes to our N then we will likely see rain. If the low passes directly over NJ then we could see a mix of both. Right now it looks like right over us or to our N and as a weak system.

I’ll be watching this modeled behavior but right now it certainly looks like weak sauce. The main indicator I’ll be watching is the high pressure that moves along the N side of the low. If this high pressure jumps out ahead of the low then you can expect return flow to take the low to the N. If the high stays on the N side of the low then it could send the low further S which would position it better for east coast/Mid-Atlantic US snow. So the high pressure will give us a heads up clue but not until closer to the weekend.

Either way, I’m not enthused at this point. If this system comes back together on model guidance over the next few days and the pattern supports, then I’ll let you know immediately. Otherwise the current consensus is a much weaker disturbance. Let’s revisit this in a day or two, if the weaker disturbance is still even showing.

There’s only a few hours left to get your KABOOM hoodie! Portion of proceeds go towards a great cause…the Osprey Project of Conserve Wildlife Foundation of NJ. Purchase does not guarantee snow but promises excellent selfie potential…

Kaboom-Buy-Button

In English: I wouldn’t go cancelling your Superbowl travel plans just yet. Yes, there was once model consensus on a larger winter storm happening but that was too far out in the long range (unconfirmable from live observations). This is why we only discuss these long-range possibilities until it’s impact map time. There still might be some rain and/or snow in this period but nothing too disruptive is currently jumping out at me. If this article provokes mother nature into re-developing the storm possibility (like buying a snowblower cancels winter) then so be it and I’ll let you know. Otherwise no news is weak sauce news. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 31, 2017 19:37

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