Jan 5: Snow Update Video

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 5, 2017 19:53

Jan 5: Snow Update Video

Snow is beginning to fall and there’s more expected for the weekend. Let’s break it down…

My latest video:

Our final call for wave 1 tonight through tomorrow morning (click here to view in high resolution):

snowmap

Wave 1 Disco: As evident by radar observations and a few reports, snow is now falling in parts of WNJ and will spread from W to E. This snow represents the northern part of this system coming in from the W and is only expected to be light. Once the coastal low nears and interacts with this, the precipitation shield should intensify and produce moderate snowfall rates overnight. While it’s always an 11th hour call where that heaviest band of precipitation sets up, we feel it will be between SNJ and CNJ as the map indicates. For the most part, this first wave is a light event. The red-circled area however could see accumulations greater than 3 inches should the coastal low enhance the overall precipitation shield a bit more than expected. Timing generally looks like anytime now through sunrise tomorrow morning. We should then see a break in precipitation until Saturday morning.

Our first call for wave 2 on Saturday (click here to view in high resolution):

snowmap4

Wave 2 Disco:¬†Guidance is almost unanimous on a stronger coastal low. This is due to better upper-level support, specifically the polar energy hanging back, the subtropical energy racing slightly ahead, and an overall neutral-to-slightly-negative trough over the E US. This allows heights to rise for the east coast enough to support the outcome. The stronger coastal low would mean a larger precipitation shield on the storm’s NW side into New Jersey. We still feel that the I-95 corridor is about as far in as accumulating snowfall can get off the ocean. However we expect SENJ to see the most accumulations.

In English: Light snow tonight for most. Over-performance possible closer to the coast. All ends by sunrise tomorrow morning. More snow is then expected on Saturday for those SE of the I-95 corridor and could possibly result in significant accumulations for SENJ. Our maps above illustrate our thoughts best. Timing for Saturday would be morning through afternoon. Tomorrow I’ll have an update on that. Let the now-casting begin for tonight. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 5, 2017 19:53

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