January Discussion with WeatherTrends360

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 1, 2018 20:14

January Discussion with WeatherTrends360

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how the rest of January 2018 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ – Newark Basin), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 4-7 day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends is what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

nnj1-1-2018

Higher Elevation Discussion: If you look at the temperature spike for the Jan 3-4 period, that’s surrounding the passing coastal storm period (late Wed PM through early Fri AM). Otherwise relief from the brutal cold is expected to arrive on or around January 8th. We should then stay near to slightly-above average through the mid-portion of January. The January 15-21 period appears to have more precipitation modeled than other parts of the month. This is the coldest month of the year so “near to slightly above average” is still relatively cold. It’s certainly cold enough for snow especially overnight and for this region. We should then drop to slightly-below average temperatures for the final third of the month.

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

cnj1-1-2018

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin Discussion: If you look at the temperature spike for the Jan 3-4 period, that’s surrounding the passing coastal storm period (late Wed PM through early Fri AM). Otherwise relief from the brutal cold is expected to arrive on or around January 8th. We should then stay near to slightly-above average through the mid-portion of January. The January 15-21 period appears to have more precipitation modeled than other parts of the month. This is the coldest month of the year so “near to slightly above average” could still mean wintry precipitation type, especially overnight. We should then drop to slightly-below average temperatures for the final third of the month.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

snj1-1-2018

Coastal Region Discussion: If you look at the temperature spike for the Jan 3-4 period, that’s surrounding the passing coastal storm period (late Wed PM through early Fri AM). Otherwise relief from the brutal cold is expected to arrive on or around January 8th. We should then stay near to slightly-above average through the mid-portion of January. A few SNJ/SENJ areas might threaten to break 50 during daytime hours. Overnight hours however could still support snowfall.  Precipitation looks less than average with a few scattered synoptic events here and there. We should then drop to slightly-below average temperatures for the final third of the month.

In English: All of New Jersey should expect the cold to sustain until about January 8 (whether we get the Jan 4 storm or not). We then take a break from the brutally cold air in the middle of the month. It will still be relatively cold but will seem mild after the cold as of late. Snowfall is possible throughout this entire time especially during overnight hours. We should then finish the last third of the month with slightly below-average temperatures. As always, individual synoptic events will be covered as they arise. Everyone have a great January and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 1, 2018 20:14

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