January Thaw Commences

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 19, 2018 11:46

January Thaw Commences

Discussion: These next 5 days should be the most prolonged January thaw period of the month. From now until about Wednesday we’re going to moderate as high pressure, sliding by to our S into the Atlantic Ocean, re-enforces a milder air mass over New Jersey. We’re talking temperatures easily breaking into the 50s for most on Saturday and then a hair less mild on Sunday. Regardless, the weekend looks dry, sunny and mild (for January). The high pressure southerly return flow should then hand the S flow baton to the approaching Great Lakes low early next week. Warm sector flow should then keep temperatures on the mild side for Monday and Tuesday. The Great Lakes Cutter low should bring snow to the N/C US and Great Lakes. These systems produce quick-moving rainy frontal passages downstream for the east coast as the mid-latitude cyclone occludes in-place near the lakes. Mild temperature spikes are common just ahead of the cold front. There’s probably a better chance for embedded thunderstorms ahead/along the cold front than for back-end wintry precipitation. Look for that mid next-week (maybe Tuesday into Wednesday). Temps should then crash upon cold frontal passage (by Wednesday PM/Thursday AM). We should then see a cold shot late next-week before likely returning to the thaw to close out the remainder of the month. Therefore I’m not expecting any more major snow storms in January.

Looking beyond next week, we might end the month with another Great Lakes cutter (strong synoptic signal). This would then, in theory, drag another cold front through to start February. So far February indicates a more favorable overall pattern for winter storm development. The jet streams should arrange themselves in a more meridional pattern with both cold air and moisture available to tap from the polar and sub-tropical jet streams. While no specific system currently has the spotlight, I’ll be watching the first half of February for any synoptic storm signals that arise.    

Friday (Jan 19) high temperatures should range from upper-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most with extreme SNJ holding near-30.

Saturday (Jan 20) high temperatures should break into the 50s for most. NNJ elevations might be held in the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most. NNJ elevations could dip into the 20s.

Sunday (Jan 21) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to low-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s statewide. Only NWNJ should dip below freezing.

An early look at next week indicates milder temperatures (for January) continuing through about Tuesday/Wednesday. A cold front should then pass through with rain around ~Tuesday/Wednesday and drop temperature down for Thursday and Friday. By the end of next weekend we should moderate again. Let’s take another look at everything in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Comments

comments

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 19, 2018 11:46

Current Weather in NJ

giweather wordpress widget