July 11: Possible Rough Surf Detected
A low pressure disturbance should form in the OBX area tomorrow and track NE through Monday—well out to sea and SE of New Jersey. The system could actually pass over warmer gulf stream waters and develop tropical convection. The only reason this is worth mentioning is because of potential surf impacts during peak beach season. With that said, strong rip currents and slightly elevated wave heights are possible between Sunday evening and Tuesday morning. Please use caution and respect/listen to life guards and local authorities along coastal regions.
The Euro, GFS and NAM are all on board with this happening. Here’s the latest NAM showing the system’s expected position at 11AM on Monday:
In English: So that it’s perfectly clear, this system has no chance to hit New Jersey. Despite a mostly sunny/warm Sunday and Monday expected on land, the ocean could be rough and/or contain strong rip currents. Surf conditions should subside by Tuesday morning but I’d give it until Tuesday afternoon to be conservative. Please be safe! JC