July 22: Tropical Activity Update

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 22, 2014 20:41

July 22: Tropical Activity Update

Tropical Depression TWO continues to churn across the Atlantic Ocean towards the Lesser Antilles. Estimated impact for the Leeward and northern Windward Islands would be Thursday morning through afternoon. Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic region would then see impacts Thursday evening through Friday. As far as track and intensity beyond that, it doesn’t look good for tropical development yet alone sustainment. Dry air from the Sahara Desert initially stunted this system’s growth but it will now encounter wind shear as it nears the islands. This should help keep the system weak.

With that being said, Tropical Depression TWO will likely fizzle to just a post-tropical wave by the time it’s passing over the E. Caribbean. Currently I see no major impact for New Jersey. The absolute worst case scenario would be remnants of the wave taking a northerly turn up the east coast and bringing widespread rainfall. There would be no wind or coastal flooding. Here’s the latest tropical spaghetti showing the general projected immediate path:

Weather NJ tropical models

If you have vacation plans in the Lesser Antilles/Puerto Rico/Dominican Rep./Haiti region this Thursday-Friday, it’s not worth freaking out about. I doubt TD02 will even reach tropical storm status. This is a laughable passing shower for that region and will probably only wash out a 6-8 hour period of time. As far as New Jersey goes, we could use the rain should a system like this decide to head up the coast. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 22, 2014 20:41

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