June Discussion with WeatherTrends360

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr June 4, 2018 21:23

June Discussion with WeatherTrends360

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how the rest of June 2018 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into climatological regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ – Newark Basin), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends is what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

nnj6-2018

Higher Elevation Discussion: Temperatures are expected to climb through the rest of June as we approach the typical warmest time of year. For this region that means highs in 70s/low-80s climbing to highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Always allow a few 90 degree+ days for this region, especially when high pressure sets up overhead. The first half of the month should contain most of June’s precipitation. The second half of the month should be drier but still a few frontal showers and thunderstorms here and there. Once we are through the first half of June, low temperatures should only fall into the 50s for the highest elevations. There should be many nights where overnight lows fail to dip below 60.

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

cnj6-2018

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin Discussion: Temperatures are expected to climb through the rest of June as we approach the typical warmest time of year. For this region that means highs in 70s/low-80s climbing to highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. This region has the best chance to break 90 given urban heat island effect running through the general I-95 corridor. The first half of the month should contain most of June’s precipitation. The second half of the month should be drier but still a few frontal showers and thunderstorms here and there. Once we get past ~June 10-11, overnight lows should stay mostly in the 60s with possibly a few dips into the upper-50s should a cold front passage time with radiational cooling overnight. During the warmer periods (est. June 24-forward), it is common for this area to hover around upper-60s/lower-70s for overnight lows.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

snj6-2018

Coastal Region Discussion: Temperatures are expected to climb through the rest of June as we approach the typical warmest time of year. For this region that means highs in 70s/low-80s climbing to highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. This region has a solid shot of breaking 90 a few times, especially towards the end of June. The cooling marine influence should start halting as sea surface temperatures clime towards room temperature. Also since this is the furthest-south region of NJ, it should be closer to any warm or stationary frontal boundaries. The first half of the month should contain most of June’s precipitation. The second half of the month should be drier but still a few frontal showers and thunderstorms here and there. Once we get past ~June 11-12, overnight lows should stay above 60 due to the opposite marine influence effect (now that the water will be warmer). During the warmer periods (est. June 24-forward), you might see overnight lows fail to dip below 70.

In English: The ENSO cycle continues to come out of La Nina and set up for a weak El Nino as we head through summer and into Fall/Winter. I think we’re finally exiting the crappy cool/rainy pattern that has dominated most of May and the start of June. Such conditions after the back-loaded winter (March-April) are simply sub-optimal. I know we need the rain but the prolonged periods of sunless skies has taken its toll on many. This week the entire state should be cooler thanks to the upper-level low/shallow trough dominating the pattern. This is why you saw fall-like skies today. This creates a general unsettled area of weather over the Mid-Atlantic US and that should run through this weekend. The pattern then looks to break around June 12 (after this weekend). That should mean more sunshine, sustained warmth and all the typical summery things that go with that (humidity, pop-up thunderstorms, etc.). The bottom line… hang in there, much better weather is coming next week. Have a great rest of your June and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr June 4, 2018 21:23

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