Long Range Outlook: Closing Out Astronomical Summer

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 2, 2015 13:06

Long Range Outlook: Closing Out Astronomical Summer

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms for a look at the rest of astronomical summer (ends at 4:21AM on Wednesday AM, September 23). But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the upper elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion. Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles and time table series.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This region is known to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter.

nnj

Discussion: The first third of September looks to remain warm, aside from a potential BDCF (Back Door Cold Front) this weekend due to strong E/SE onshore flow. Expect more 90s before this weekend and mid-80s after. Interior regions along urban areas (I-95 corridor from Philly through Trenton and into NYC) should reach the highest temperatures during this period with typical summer shower and thunderstorm activity. The remaining 2/3 of September appears to feature temperatures more seasonably. Once we do make that transition from summer’s last grip to sustained early fall feel, widespread precipitation chances will increase and help combat the current developing drought. By the time astronomical summer ends, this region should be experiencing highs just breaking 70 and overnight lows flirting with the 40s, especially for NNJ elevations. Such conditions appear to close out the rest of September as well.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land.

cnj

Discussion: The first third of September looks to remain warm, aside from a potential BDCF (Back Door Cold Front) this weekend due to strong E/SE onshore flow. Expect more 90s before this weekend and mid-80s after. Interior regions along urban areas (I-95 corridor from Philly through Trenton and into NYC) should reach the highest temperatures during this period with typical summer shower and thunderstorm activity. The remaining 2/3 of September appears to feature temperatures more seasonably average. Once we do make that transition from summer’s last grip to sustained early fall feel, widespread precipitation chances will increase and help combat the current developing drought. By the time astronomical summer ends, this region should be experiencing highs in the mid-70s and overnight lows down well into the 50s. Such conditions appear to close out the rest of September.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. This forms a micro-climate that only local inhabitants and frequent visitors are familiar with.

snj

Discussion: The first third of September looks to remain warm, aside from a potential BDCF (Back Door Cold Front) this weekend due to strong E/SE onshore flow. Expect more 90s before this weekend and mid-80s after. Interior regions along urban areas (I-95 corridor from Philly through Trenton and into NYC) should reach the highest temperatures during this period with typical summer shower and thunderstorm activity. The remaining 2/3 of September appears to feature temperatures more seasonably average. Once we do make that transition from summer’s last grip to sustained early fall feel, widespread precipitation chances will increase and help combat the current developing drought. By the time astronomical summer ends, this region should be experiencing highs in the mid-70s and overnight lows down well into the 50s. Such conditions appear to close out the rest of September.

In English: We’re hot and humid during the next few days, cooler for the weekend followed by summer’s last gasp next week. Lack of rainfall should continue during this period as the drought continues to develop. After that, general conditions will feel like fall through the rest of September and we should see a correlating increase in widespread rainfall.

Tropical activity is the unforeseen caveat which cannot be detected until about 7-10 days from formation using global model guidance. We’re very close to peak hurricane season so its time to start paying attention to anything that comes off the west coast of Africa as well as closer developments in the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas/Caribbean. Should that happen, I’ll be on it immediately. Otherwise, a great September is predicted!

Weathertrends360 is a complete, global, web solution to help retailers and suppliers capitalize on the weather and its influence on sales and marketing plans up to a year ahead. Learn how to become PROACTIVE vs REACTIVE with the weather in every phase of your business – how much inventory to buy/produce, where to allocate more/less, when to run weather-optimized advertising/marketing campaigns – weathertrends360 can help you determine all of this in minutes! 84% independently audited accuracy for both short-term and year-ahead forecasts for temperature and precipitation.

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Image Credit: Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean obtained from Google images using the “available for reuse” clause. Enjoy the month of September and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 2, 2015 13:06

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