Long Range Outlook: Early Look at November

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 30, 2015 11:34

Long Range Outlook: Early Look at November

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms for an early look at November. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the upper elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion. Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles and time table series.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This region is known to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter.

nnj

Higher Elevations Discussion: After an expected cooler Halloween weekend, the first week of November appears to feature above-average temperatures followed by a rainy transition into seasonably average temperatures to close out the month. I expect lows to bottom out near freezing this weekend and top out in the upper-60s next week. After that, highs in the 50s/lows in the 30s should be common. While the first 3rd of November appears to be dry, the second 2/3 should feature decent amounts of rainfall which should help our drought situation.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land.

cnj

Interior Coastal Plain Discussion: After an expected cooler Halloween weekend, the first week of November appears to feature above-average temperatures followed by a rainy transition into varying temperatures that average out to seasonably average to close out the month. I expect lows to bottom out in the 30s this weekend and top out in the lower-70s next week. After that, highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s should be common. While the first 3rd of November appears to be dry, the second 2/3 should feature decent amounts of rainfall which should help our drought situation.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. This forms a micro-climate that only local inhabitants and frequent visitors are familiar with.

snj

Discussion: After an expected cooler Halloween weekend, the first week of November appears to feature above-average temperatures followed by a rainy transition into varying temperatures that average out to seasonably average to close out the month. I expect lows to bottom out in the 30s this weekend and top out in the lower-70s next week. After that, highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s should be common. While the first 3rd of November appears to be dry, the second 2/3 should feature decent amounts of rainfall which should help our drought situation.

Summary: We should be cool this weekend, warm next week and then seasonably average for the rest of the month. Second 2/3 of month appear rainier than first 1/3.

We’re nearing the end of tropical cyclone season, however extra-tropical systems and nor’easters are always possible during the fall months. I’ll be on lookout should such develop on model guidance. This would likely be the only caveat to my above discussions as such synoptic systems can alter weather patterns.  Be safe! JC

Weathertrends360 is a complete, global, web solution to help retailers and suppliers capitalize on the weather and its influence on sales and marketing plans up to a year ahead. Learn how to become PROACTIVE vs REACTIVE with the weather in every phase of your business – how much inventory to buy/produce, where to allocate more/less, when to run weather-optimized advertising/marketing campaigns – weathertrends360 can help you determine all of this in minutes! 84% independently audited accuracy for both short-term and year-ahead forecasts for temperature and precipitation.

A forecast Weather Trends issued one year ago is more accurate than every other weather company’s 5 to 14-day forecasts. The University of Miami and West Point PhD Climatologist’s prove WTI’s year-ahead forecasts are several times more accurate than NOAA – Click to Download Report. Also check out their free txt and email alerts!

Comments

comments

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 30, 2015 11:34

Current Weather in NJ

giweather wordpress widget