Long Range Outlook: Early Look at November

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This region is known to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter.

Higher Elevations Discussion: After an expected cooler Halloween weekend, the first week of November appears to feature above-average temperatures followed by a rainy transition into seasonably average temperatures to close out the month. I expect lows to bottom out near freezing this weekend and top out in the upper-60s next week. After that, highs in the 50s/lows in the 30s should be common. While the first 3rd of November appears to be dry, the second 2/3 should feature decent amounts of rainfall which should help our drought situation.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land.

Interior Coastal Plain Discussion: After an expected cooler Halloween weekend, the first week of November appears to feature above-average temperatures followed by a rainy transition into varying temperatures that average out to seasonably average to close out the month. I expect lows to bottom out in the 30s this weekend and top out in the lower-70s next week. After that, highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s should be common. While the first 3rd of November appears to be dry, the second 2/3 should feature decent amounts of rainfall which should help our drought situation.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. This forms a micro-climate that only local inhabitants and frequent visitors are familiar with.

Discussion: After an expected cooler Halloween weekend, the first week of November appears to feature above-average temperatures followed by a rainy transition into varying temperatures that average out to seasonably average to close out the month. I expect lows to bottom out in the 30s this weekend and top out in the lower-70s next week. After that, highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s should be common. While the first 3rd of November appears to be dry, the second 2/3 should feature decent amounts of rainfall which should help our drought situation.

Summary: We should be cool this weekend, warm next week and then seasonably average for the rest of the month. Second 2/3 of month appear rainier than first 1/3.

We’re nearing the end of tropical cyclone season, however extra-tropical systems and nor’easters are always possible during the fall months. I’ll be on lookout should such develop on model guidance. This would likely be the only caveat to my above discussions as such synoptic systems can alter weather patterns. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™