Long Range Outlook: Through August 2016

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how the rest of August 2016 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion. Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles and time table series. The best takeaway from this are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). That’s what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This region is known to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

Higher Elevation Discussion: The first third of August appears rather dry and warm (not hot). This comes after a hot and stormy finish to July. Aside from the cold frontal passage this Saturday, we’re not seeing significant rainfall until the second 2/3 of the month which should feature plenty. So overall, August should hover in the upper-70s/lower-80s for high temperatures (60s for lows) with below-average precipitation in the first 1/3 of the month and above average precipitation in the second 2/3 of the month. The rainfall is much-welcomed for this region which has been battling drought.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

Interior Coastal Plain Discussion: The first third of August appears rather dry and warm. This region should still squeeze out a few more 90+ days, likely in the first half of the month, but those are numbered as we approach meteorological fall. Aside from the cold frontal passage this Saturday, we’re not seeing significant rainfall until the second 2/3 of the month which should feature plenty. So overall, August should hover in the mid-to-upper 80s/lower 90s for high temperatures (60s/70s for lows) with below-average precipitation in the first 1/3 of the month and above average precipitation in the second 2/3 of the month. The rainfall is much-welcomed for this region which has also been battling drought.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

Coastal Region Discussion: The first third of August appears rather dry and warm. This region should still squeeze out a few more 90+ days, likely in the first half of the month, but those are numbered as we approach meteorological fall. Remember, the ocean is in the mid-70s now so onshore flow doesn’t bust air temperatures down into the 50s/60s anymore. It now creates a heavenly dank breezy feeling that coastal regions adore. Aside from the cold frontal passage this Saturday, we’re not seeing significant rainfall until the second 2/3 of the month which should feature plenty. So overall, August should hover in the mid-to-upper 80s/lower 90s for high temperatures (60s/70s for lows) with below-average precipitation in the first 1/3 of the month and above average precipitation in the second 2/3 of the month.  This region is not as impacted by the drought as the other two climatologal regions of New Jersey.

Hurricane season is entering peak season (Aug 1-Oct 31). We have a system in the Caribbean that we’re watching but other than that, no immediate threats to the east coast currently exist.  I’ll be watching tropical guidance closely and will make sure you are aware of anything suspicious of forming.

In English: The general theme setting up breaks August into two. The first third of the month looks warmer and drier (typical t-storms aside). The second 2/3 of the month looks cooler and wetter. Nothing is jumping out at me as being far-above or below average for temperatures or precipitation. Otherwise, I’m watching the tropics closely.

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Have a great rest of your August and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™